Private Equity - Russia

  • Russia
  • In Russia, the deal value in the Private Equity market is projected to reach US$12.01m in 2024.
  • It is anticipated that this market will exhibit an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2025) of 27.81%, resulting in a projected total amount of US$15.35m by 2025.
  • The average size per deal in the Russian Private Equity market is estimated to be US$0.86m in 2024.
  • A global comparison indicates that the highest deal value is achieved in the United States, which stands at US$594.00bn in 2024.
  • In Russia, the number of deals in the Private Equity market is expected to reach 14.13 by 2025.
  • In Russia, the Private Equity market is increasingly focusing on technology investments, driven by a burgeoning startup ecosystem and greater demand for digital transformation.
 
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Analyst Opinion

The Private Equity market in Russia has faced minimal decline, influenced by factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuating oil prices, and shifts in investor confidence, which have all contributed to a cautious growth environment amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Customer preferences:
In the evolving landscape of the Private Equity market in Russia, investors are increasingly focusing on technology-driven startups catering to a younger, tech-savvy demographic. As this younger generation prioritizes sustainability and social responsibility, there is a growing demand for investments in green technologies and socially responsible enterprises. Additionally, the rising middle class is fostering interest in consumer goods and e-commerce platforms, prompting Private Equity firms to explore opportunities that align with these changing consumer preferences and lifestyle factors.

Trends in the market:
In Russia, the Private Equity market is experiencing a notable shift toward sustainable investing, with firms increasingly directing capital toward startups focused on clean energy and environmental innovation. This trend aligns with the global push for sustainability, prompting investors to seek opportunities that address climate change and resource efficiency. Additionally, there is a surge in interest in technology-centric consumer goods and e-commerce platforms, reflecting the rising demand from a digital-savvy middle class. These trends are significant as they not only influence investment strategies but also encourage industry stakeholders to innovate and adapt to evolving consumer values, shaping the future landscape of the market.

Local special circumstances:
In Russia, the Private Equity market is shaped by unique local factors, such as the vast geographical expanse and diverse regional needs, which influence investment focuses. The significant reliance on natural resources creates opportunities for sustainable innovations in energy and environmental practices. Culturally, there is a growing awareness of ecological issues, prompting investors to support green technologies. Furthermore, regulatory changes aimed at fostering startup growth and foreign investment have opened new avenues, enhancing the appeal of the market to both local and international investors.

Underlying macroeconomic factors:
The Private Equity market in Russia is significantly influenced by overarching macroeconomic factors, particularly central bank policies and interest rates. Low interest rates generally facilitate access to capital, encouraging private equity firms to leverage debt for acquisitions and investments. Conversely, rising interest rates can heighten borrowing costs, potentially dampening investment activity. Additionally, global economic trends, such as fluctuations in commodity prices and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and capital flows. As the Russian economy navigates these dynamics, fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and attracting foreign investments further shape the outlook for private equity opportunities within the country.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The figures are based on deal value, number of deals, the average size of each deal, and assets under management within the Private Equity market.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of key players, industry reports, third-party reports, and publicly available databases. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as: GDP, total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), high income (% of population), and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI). This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), number of high-income persons, and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI).

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.

Overview

  • Deal Value
  • Average Deal Size
  • Number of Deals
  • Assets Under Management (AUM)
  • Analyst Opinion
  • Methodology
  • Key Market Indicators
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