Private Equity - Luxembourg

Luxembourg

The deal value in the Private Equity market is projected to reach US$2.96bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2025) of 29.73% resulting in a projected total amount of US$3.84bn by 2025.
The average size per deal in the Private Equity market amounts to US$128.70m in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest deal value is reached in the United States (US$594.00bn in 2024).
In the Private Equity market, the number of deals is expected to amount to 23.79 by 2025.

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Analyst Opinion

The private equity (PE) industry has recently transitioned into a more cautious and measured pace, reflecting a significant shift from the environment of the past 5-10 years. Tightened central bank policies, particularly rising interest rates, have created challenges for deal-making and fundraising. With higher costs of debt and fewer profitable exits, fund managers are navigating a tougher landscape, leading to a recalibration of the market back to pre-pandemic levels.
Despite these headwinds, the industry remains resilient. Fund managers are adapting by broadening their strategies, including exploring new asset classes like private credit and infrastructure. They are also focusing on operational improvements within portfolio companies, especially under the lens of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, which are increasingly seen as critical for long-term value creation.
Looking ahead, while uncertainties remain, the industry's adaptive nature suggests that it will continue to evolve and find opportunities even in challenging conditions. This period will test the ability of PE firms to deliver on their promises, but those with strong strategic vision and operational capabilities are likely to thrive.

Methodology

Data coverage:

The figures are based on deal value, number of deals, the average size of each deal, and assets under management within the Private Equity market.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a combined top-down and bottom-up approach, building on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of key players, industry reports, third-party reports, and publicly available databases. In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as: GDP, total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), high income (% of population), and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI). This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are total investment (% of GDP), household wealth (per Adult), number of high-income persons, and number of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI).

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change.