Commodities - Southern Africa

Southern Africa

The nominal value in the Commodities market is projected to reach US$1,733.00bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 2.08% resulting in a projected total amount of US$1,921.00bn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Commodities market amounts to US$0.38 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (US$53,690.00bn in 2024).
In the Commodities market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 4,491.00k by 2029.

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

The Commodities market in Southern Africa is witnessing a significant shift in customer preferences, market trends, and local special circumstances that are shaping its development.

Customer preferences: Customers in Southern Africa are increasingly turning to Commodities as a way to diversify their investment portfolios and hedge against market volatility. The appeal of Commodities lies in their ability to provide a level of security and stability in uncertain economic conditions.

Trends in the market: In countries like South Africa and Zambia, there is a growing trend of retail investors entering the Commodities market, driven by easier access to trading platforms and a desire to take advantage of potential high returns. Additionally, there is a noticeable increase in the trading volume of Commodities futures contracts, indicating a higher level of market activity and interest.

Local special circumstances: Southern Africa's Commodities market is also influenced by local factors such as political stability, regulatory environment, and infrastructure development. Countries like Botswana and Namibia, with stable political climates and well-established financial systems, are seeing a surge in Commodities trading activities. On the other hand, regions facing political unrest or regulatory uncertainties may experience slower growth in the Commodities market.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The development of the Commodities market in Southern Africa is closely tied to broader macroeconomic factors such as exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. Fluctuations in these economic indicators can impact investor sentiment and influence trading behavior in the Commodities market. As a result, market participants are constantly monitoring and reacting to changes in the macroeconomic environment to make informed trading decisions.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.