Agricultural Product Derivatives - Montenegro

Montenegro

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach US$1.12bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 5.15% resulting in a projected total amount of US$1.44bn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to US$0.07 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (US$12,320.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 16.83k by 2029.

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Analyst Opinion

The Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Montenegro is experiencing a shift in dynamics driven by changing customer preferences, market trends, local special circumstances, and underlying macroeconomic factors.

Customer preferences: Montenegrin investors are increasingly turning to Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to diversify their portfolios and hedge against market volatility. The potential for high returns and the opportunity to speculate on price movements are attracting a new wave of investors to this market.

Trends in the market: One of the key trends in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Montenegro is the growing interest in derivatives linked to staple crops such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. As global demand for these commodities remains strong, investors are looking to capitalize on price fluctuations through derivative instruments. Additionally, there is a rising demand for derivatives related to livestock products, reflecting the evolving preferences of market participants.

Local special circumstances: Montenegro's agricultural sector plays a significant role in the country's economy, making Agricultural Product Derivatives a relevant market for local investors. The country's geographical location and climate conditions also influence the types of derivatives traded, with a focus on products that are relevant to Montenegro's agricultural landscape.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Macro trends such as inflation, interest rates, and government policies impact the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Montenegro. Investors closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions about their derivative positions. The stability of the national economy and the overall investment climate in Montenegro are crucial considerations for market participants looking to engage in derivative trading.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.