Agricultural Product Derivatives - Lebanon

Lebanon

The nominal value in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market is projected to reach US$3.35bn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 4.63% resulting in a projected total amount of US$4.20bn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market amounts to US$0.10 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached in the United States (US$12,320.00bn in 2024).
In the Agricultural Product Derivatives market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 30.68k by 2029.

Market

Region

Region comparison

Currency

Analyst Opinion

Amidst a backdrop of economic challenges, the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Lebanon is experiencing notable developments.

Customer preferences: Customers in Lebanon are showing an increasing interest in Agricultural Product Derivatives as a way to diversify their investment portfolios and hedge against market volatility. This trend is in line with global patterns where investors are seeking alternative investment options beyond traditional financial instruments.

Trends in the market: One of the prominent trends in the Agricultural Product Derivatives market in Lebanon is the growing demand for derivatives linked to staple crops such as wheat and barley. This trend is influenced by the country's reliance on agricultural imports to meet domestic demand, making agricultural products a focal point for investors and traders.

Local special circumstances: Lebanon's unique geopolitical position and agricultural landscape play a significant role in shaping the Agricultural Product Derivatives market. The country's vulnerability to external factors like political instability and climate change adds a layer of complexity to trading agricultural derivatives. Moreover, the presence of small-scale farmers and fragmented agricultural practices contribute to market nuances that investors need to navigate.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: The macroeconomic environment in Lebanon, characterized by high inflation and currency depreciation, is driving interest in Agricultural Product Derivatives as a means of preserving capital and generating returns. Investors are turning to derivatives as a tool to manage risks associated with fluctuating prices and currency devaluation, highlighting the importance of these financial instruments in a volatile economic landscape.

Methodology

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.