Grocery Delivery - China | Statista Market Forecast

The projected revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in China is estimated to reach US$266.00bn by 2024.
It is expected to demonstrate an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 11.33%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$455.00bn by 2029.
The Retail Delivery market China is projected to have a market volume of US$185.20bn in 2024.
In comparison to other countries globally, China is anticipated to generate the highest revenue in the Grocery Delivery market, amounting to US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market is projected to be US$504.40 in 2024.
The number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 757.1m users by 2029.
The user penetration rate in the Grocery Delivery market China is estimated to be 36.8% in 2024.
The rise of e-commerce giants like Alibaba and JD.com has fueled the rapid growth of online grocery delivery services in China.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The grocery delivery market in China has seen significant growth in recent years, driven by a combination of changing consumer preferences and technological advancements.

Customer preferences: Chinese consumers place a high value on convenience and efficiency, which has led to a growing demand for grocery delivery services. This is particularly true in urban areas, where busy lifestyles and limited access to transportation make it difficult for consumers to shop for groceries in traditional brick-and-mortar stores. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of online grocery shopping, as consumers seek to minimize their exposure to crowded public spaces.

Trends in the market: One of the most notable trends in the Chinese grocery delivery market is the dominance of large e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com. These companies have invested heavily in logistics infrastructure and are able to offer fast and reliable delivery services to consumers across the country. In addition, many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have also entered the market, either by partnering with e-commerce platforms or by developing their own delivery capabilities.Another trend in the market is the increasing use of technology to improve the customer experience. For example, many grocery delivery companies are using artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms to personalize recommendations and improve delivery efficiency. Additionally, some companies are experimenting with new delivery models, such as autonomous vehicles and drones, to further reduce delivery times and costs.

Local special circumstances: China's unique market conditions have also played a role in shaping the grocery delivery market. For example, the country's vast size and population density make it difficult for traditional retailers to reach all consumers, particularly those in rural areas. Additionally, the prevalence of mobile payments and the widespread use of social media have made it easier for consumers to shop online and share their experiences with others.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Several macroeconomic factors have contributed to the growth of the grocery delivery market in China. For example, rising incomes and urbanization have led to a growing middle class with increased purchasing power and a greater demand for convenience. Additionally, government policies aimed at promoting e-commerce and digital innovation have helped to create a favorable business environment for grocery delivery companies. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of online shopping and delivery services, which is likely to have a lasting impact on consumer behavior.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.