Quick Commerce - Uganda | Statista Market Forecast

The Quick Commerce market in Uganda is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years.
According to projections, the revenue in this market is anticipated to reach US$13.37m by 2024.
This growth is attributed to the increasing demand for quick and convenient delivery services.
Furthermore, the market is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2028) of 14.72%.
By 2028, the projected market volume is estimated to reach US$23.15m, indicating a substantial expansion in the Quick Commerce market sector.
In terms of user base, the number of users in the Quick Commerce market is projected to reach 2.1m users by 2028.
This signifies a growing adoption of Quick Commerce market services among consumers in Uganda.
The user penetration rate, which represents the proportion of the population using Quick Commerce market services, is expected to increase from 2.9% in 2024 to 3.8% by 2028.
This indicates a gradual expansion of Quick Commerce market services among the population.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Quick Commerce market is projected to amount to US$8.95.
This metric highlights the average amount of revenue generated per user, showcasing the potential for profitability in the Quick Commerce market sector.
In a global perspective, it is worth noting that China is expected to generate the highest revenue in the Quick Commerce market, with an estimated revenue of US$80.84bn in 2024.
This indicates the significant scale of the Chinese market and its dominant position in the Quick Commerce market industry.
Furthermore, China is also projected to have the highest user penetration rate in the Quick Commerce market, with a projected rate of 21.0%.
This showcases the widespread adoption of Quick Commerce market services among the Chinese population.
In summary, the Quick Commerce market in Uganda is poised for substantial growth, with increasing revenue, user base, and user penetration.
However, it is essential to acknowledge the global dominance of China in this market.
Uganda's quick commerce market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the increasing demand for fast and convenient delivery services in urban areas.

Definition:

The Quick Commerce market focuses on online grocery delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir and Glovo). In this case, the platform handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players advertise to deliver in under 30 minutes.

Additional Information

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Online grocery orders where the advertised delivery time is under 3 hours
Companies typically operate their own small stores (dark/cloud stores)
Online orders where a personal shopper picks and delivers grocery items (e.g., Instacart)

Phone orders
Online meal order and delivery both carried out by a platform (e.g. Deliveroo)

As consumer trends turn towards ultra-convenience and consumer demands grow, Quick Commerce grocery start-up’s growth exploded. At the end of 2021, Getir, Flink, and Gorillas dominated the European markets, having a total of more than 350 locations. But as demand slows down, we see these player scale back operations. With this, we are also seeing more acquisitions between Meal Delivery players and instant grocery players such as Delivery Hero’s purchase of a majority stake in Glovo.

China leads the quick commerce market of Online Grocery Delivery owing its growth to the rapid increase of internet users, established players, and a mature digital market. Players like MissFresh, and Meituan dominate the market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Digital market, in a PDF format.