With former U.S. President Donald Trump set to return to the White House, observers both within and outside of the country are waiting to see what he will do (or undo) in terms of climate policy. Afterall, as the world’s largest economy and a major emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States plays a major role in terms of climate negotiations and hitting global targets. This is something representatives at the COP29 summit, taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan this week, will be acutely aware of, as they come to the table to set new climate finance goals.
If history is anything to go by, even domestically, U.S. investments into climate-friendly technologies were significantly lower under Trump than his successor and incumbent President Joe Biden. According to data compiled by the Clean Investment Monitor, investments into emissions-reducing tech are estimated to have reached around $15.4 billion in the first quarter of 2018, in contrast to the Biden administration’s high of $76.3 billion in the second quarter of 2024. This data includes investments in the manufacturing, energy, industry and retail sectors. Since data is only available on this dashboard from 2018 onwards, Trump's first year in office could not be shown.
Biden took office with the vision of a “clean” energy future, aiming to reduce the country’s greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. In order to strengthen the U.S. as a hub for green industry, the Biden administration drew up sustainability guidelines for the awarding of public contracts, including the Federal Sustainability Plan. However, as the Federal Agency for Civic Education notes, while Biden's policy was designed to reduce domestic emissions of fossil fuels, it was not to restrict their extraction and use. Fossil fuels therefore continue to be a central part of U.S. energy policy.
It remains to be seen what will follow in the coming four years. During Trump’s first term in office, he not only placed a clear focus on the promotion of fossil fuels but withdrew from the Paris Agreement and rolled back a number of environmental rules. In his most recent election campaign, Trump also said that he wants to undo many of Biden’s policies.
Activists and analysts anticipate a major stall in progress, for example in terms of cuts to emissions and financial support from the U.S. to other countries trying to increase their clean energy output and adapt to climate change. However, they say Trump is unlikely to fully stop the transition to clean energy, particularly in view of how a Biden administration law called the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides subsidies for new solar, wind and renewable energy projects, has been beneficial to Republican districts and would be difficult to repeal.
