2019 election projection: Labour closing the gap

In the lead up to the 2017 general election, YouGov's MRP projection model accurately predicted a hung parliament at a time when many other pollsters were indicating a Conservative majority. The MRP technique (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) is used to make estimates for small geographies for which only small sample sizes are available. Anthony Wells, Director of Political and Social Research at YouGov, explains: "It works by using an extremely large number of interviews to model people's voting preferences based upon their demographics and the local political circumstances. Once this model has been developed it is applied to the demographic make-up and political circumstances of each of the 632 constituencies in Great Britain, providing projected vote shares for each and every seat".

As this infographic shows, the projections for 2019 are not for a hung parliament, but compared to the first projection published on 27 November, one is looking more likely. According to the latest calculations, Boris Johnson's Conservative party is set for a parliamentary majority of 28, while taking 339 seats to Labour's 231. This though is a whole 40 seats less than was predicted at the end of last month meaning, as the Independent's John Rentoul writes: "The election is back on", adding: "This would be good enough for the Conservatives if it were the result, but as a prediction, it is too close for their comfort."