Demographic development - statistics & facts
Choose a region:
Recent years have seen some major demographic milestones: the world’s population surpassed eight billion in 2023; India overtook China as the most populous country in 2022; while China and Europe's populations went into decline in 2022 and 2021 respectively. Demographic change has some of the most important, yet overlooked, impacts on modern societies: regional trends can determine the success of a business launch or election campaign, while global trends affect challenges like climate change, migration crises, or resource scarcity. Population aging and decline are now major issues in some parts of the globe, but how can we predict how these trends will develop in the coming years? and how can societies use this information to mitigate these challenges?
Aging populations place great strain on economies, as resources must be redistributed due to fewer taxpaying workers and greater eldercare demands. Additionally, these challenges compound fertility crises, as families with eldercare responsibilities may not have the capacity to have children; this is evident in China, were those born during the “one-child policy” era are often solely responsible for their parents’ care. Governments around the world have introduced family-friendly incentives to try and reverse these trends, but with no notable successes. It remains to be seen whether they will eventually lead to a cultural shift regarding fertility, or how much governments will turn to automation or migration in an attempt to solve economic decline.
The demographic transition model
As societies industrialize, trends in fertility and mortality change drastically, causing a demographic transition. In oversimplified terms, this is where societies go from having high birth and death rates to having low birth and death rates, and the interim period sees a population boom. Industrialization then brings improvements in food security, clean water, and medicine, among others, leading to a large drop in mortality, especially among children. In pre-industrial times, roughly a quarter of children did not make it to their first birthday, and half died before reaching adulthood; in many countries today, well over 99 percent of children survive childhood. As more children survive, populations grow exponentially; therefore, population booms are rarely due to increased fertility rates but rather because people live longer. In response to this falling mortality, fertility rates then go into decline as families no longer need to compensate for child mortality, while providing for larger families can strain household resources. Eventually, birth and death rates plateau at a similar level, and natural population growth is minimal.The rippling effect of demographic progress
Demographic progress is not limited to trends affecting children: improvements that increase childhood survival rates also increase life expectancy among adults and cause socioeconomic advances on a massive scale. Fewer children means women and girls’ lives are less restricted by domestic responsibilities, increasing opportunities for education, employment, and recreation. Through contraception, lower child marriage rates, and lifestyle choices, women also tend to have children later in life. Female empowerment is often met with resistance and the fight for gender equality continues even in societies considered most advanced; but, overall, there is a definitive correlation between socioeconomic progress and female empowerment that is rooted in demographic development.A future in decline?
Demographers originally believed transitions ended with balanced birth and death rates, however, below replacement-level fertility rates (around 2.1 children per woman) are now accepted as the norm in most developed countries, and the global population is set to go into decline in the 2080s. Countries such as Germany and Italy have been experiencing natural population decline for decades and have only sustained their population via immigration, whereas regions such as Eastern Europe have seen their populations drop by tens of millions through low fertility and high emigration rates. In contrast, Africa’s population is set to grow exponentially into the 2100s, as these transitions began at much later times than those of other continents, yet these countries' progress is delayed by challenges such as economic and political instability, climate change, and resource scarcities on a scale much greater than those faced by Western countries.Aging populations place great strain on economies, as resources must be redistributed due to fewer taxpaying workers and greater eldercare demands. Additionally, these challenges compound fertility crises, as families with eldercare responsibilities may not have the capacity to have children; this is evident in China, were those born during the “one-child policy” era are often solely responsible for their parents’ care. Governments around the world have introduced family-friendly incentives to try and reverse these trends, but with no notable successes. It remains to be seen whether they will eventually lead to a cultural shift regarding fertility, or how much governments will turn to automation or migration in an attempt to solve economic decline.
