Populism in Europe - Statistics & Facts

These populist attacks came from both the right and from the left, showing that populism is not a specific ideological position, but rather a way of doing politics that can be used across the political spectrum. From the right, nationalist, anti-EU, and anti-globalization parties rose to prominence in France (National Rally), Germany (Alternative for Germany), Italy (Lega/Brothers of Italy), the UK (UKIP/Brexit Party), Spain (Vox), Poland (Law & Justice), Hungary (Fidesz), and the Netherlands (PVV), as well as most other European countries. While less discussed than their right-wing counterparts, populists also rose on the left in Europe during this time, with parties such as Podemos in Spain, Syriza in Greece, and Sinn Féin in Ireland having some success, while in the UK the Labour Party elected a left-populist leader in Jeremy Corbyn who ran on a slogan of “for the many, not the few”. While the media in Europe has often portrayed populists as a threat to democracy, upon winning office they have often (though not always) backtracked on their rhetoric and not fulfilled promises made to their voters.

Populism’s rise

The idea of appealing to the ‘will of the people’ is an old and controversial idea in politics, with it often being seen as a way for strongmen to weaken or overthrow democracy, as happened in Europe frequently during the interwar period (1918-1939). Modern European populism, on the other hand, has its roots in the 1990s, when the collapse of the Soviet Union and the eastern bloc fundamentally reshaped the political landscape of the continent. While some triumphantly proclaimed ‘the end of history’ – i.e. that liberal democracy and capitalism would now be unchallenged across the globe – in reality, older party systems were gradually destabilized by the absence of a common adversary. Italy was the country where this shift was the most noticeable early on, as the country was shaken by a corruption investigation which implicated all the major established parties.

Silvio Berlusconi, a charismatic media tycoon and owner of A.C. Milan, took advantage of this situation by portraying himself as an outsider who understood the real concerns of the average Italian voter, with his party Forza Italia coming first in the 1994 general elections, only three months after its founding. While parties of the populist and nationalist right had been marginal for most of the latter half of the twentieth century, seen as extremists and unpalatable by many, this formula of using anti-establishment rhetoric through the medium of mass media (particularly 24-hour news broadcasting and tabloid newspapers), proved to be a successful formula for many European populists. Jean-Marie Le Pen reached the final round of the French presidential election in 2002, while UKIP under the leadership of Nigel Farage began to challenge in the United Kingdom in 2004.

The Great Recession, Migration Crisis & Brexit

Populists in Europe experienced a surge following the global financial crisis (2007-2008). The crisis and subsequent recession caused many voters to lose faith in the established parties of their countries, who in many cases had converged on the center ground in the 2000s, promoting economic liberalization and European integration. Populists of both the left and right blamed elites for serving their own interests and expanding their wealth, with little concern for the impact on ordinary citizens. This perception of a disconnect between policymakers and voters was then heightened by the Eurozone crisis (2010-2015), when a number of countries which use the Euro currency became unable to service their debt burdens which they had amassed during the financial crisis.

The troika’s (ECB, European Commission, IMF) requirements that these country make structural adjustments to their welfare systems, labor market institutions, and economies poured fuel on the fire of populist anger, as it was seen that international and supranational institutions run by “unelected” technocrats were shifting the burden of the crisis on to ordinary citizens. This situation was worsened by the migration crisis caused by the Syrian civil war, as millions of people fled the violence in Syria into European countries. Populist governments in southern, central, and eastern Europe rallied against allowing refugees into their countries, while Angela Merkel’s decision to provide asylum for a large number of Syrian refugees contributed massively to the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The United Kingdom, which had always been one of the most Eurosceptic countries, held a referendum on EU membership in 2016, with many commentators pointing out that the migration crisis played a key role in the leave campaign winning.

Populism in Europe today

The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a roadblock in the rise of populism, as the normal course of democratic politics was diverted, while the approval ratings of many leaders surged in a “rally around the flag” effect and populist energies were diverted towards anti-vaccination campaigns and other pandemic-related issues. Nevertheless, populism has once again returned as a force in European politics following the pandemic, with France’s National Rally achieving their best ever result in the 2022 presidential election, Italy’s Brothers of Italy and Lega entering into a new right wing coalition, and the Alternative for Germany surging to second place in opinion polls in 2023. Europe’s populist moment is therefore far from over, with countries such as Poland and Hungary being ruled by nationalist and populist leaders for more than a decade now. The UK's exit from the EU in 2020 can be seen as the apex of populism's triumph in that country, although many of its key figures, such as former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have since fallen from grace.

In spite of populism’s enduring popularity, there remains a number of issues which populists struggle with. On coming to power, many formerly populist leaders have found that they are unable or unwilling to follow many of the promises made in their rhetoric, with leaders such as Georgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, being seen as governing in a more centrist manner than she was expected to. Whether populists inherently are prone to compromise and tone down their rhetoric could be debated, however, as other leaders, such as Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, have arguably become more confrontational since entering office. Another issue which populists face is whether their appeals to national sovereignty can be an actual solution when faced with issues that require international and European coordination – Poland’s populist government has had to change its stance to the EU when faced with the Russian invasion of its neighbor Ukraine. Whether this proves to also be the case for the most salient global issue of the twenty-first century, climate change, remains to be seen.