Aaron O'Neill
Research lead for society, economy, and politics: Europe & global
Global elections in 2025 - Statistics & Facts
While 2025 may not compare to “the year of elections” that was 2024, there are still some major political battles to be fought in the year ahead. Voters in (at least) two G7 countries will go to the polls this year, and political volatility in both countries means both elections were moved to much earlier dates in the year. Several other large economies and regional powers will hold elections that could not only change the political landscape at home but will likely have far-reaching international implications for years to come. Additionally, a series of political crises in late-2024 means that several countries have announced, or are expected to announce, unscheduled elections in 2025, therefore this year already shaping up to continue on the tumultuous trajectory set in the previous year.
Turnout in 2025's election was 84 percent; the highest since reunification. The results were relatively close to pre-election polling, yet they still sent shockwaves throughout the country and beyond. As predicted, the CDU won the most votes and will lead the new government, with Friedrich Merz as Chancellor. Merz was Merkel’s rival for party leadership in the early 2000s, but was sidelined during her tenure, before he returned to politics in 2021 and became party leader in 2022. The major headline, however, was the strong performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, who took almost 21 percent of the vote. This party is extremely divisive in Germany, and ran on a broadly anti-immigrant (especially Muslims), anti-Green, libertarian, and pro-Russia platform. The AfD is often criticized for its increasingly nationalist and far-right rhetoric, and several members have had links to neo-Nazi organizations or have used banned Nazi-era slogans, although party leadership often rejects this connection. A map of election results shows a clear political divide that aligns with Germany's Cold War partition: in the former-East (but not including Berlin), the AfD was the most popular party in 47 of 48 constituencies, but won only two of the West's 239 constituencies. Nonetheless, all major parties refused to work with the AfD in the parliament, therefore the CDU will (likely) form a government with the SPD, the third-largest party, in a so-called "grand coalition". The SPD recorded its lowest vote share in almost 150 years, but benefitted from the failure of the FDP and the new BSW parties to cross the five percent threshold to enter parliament (the BSW received 4.97 percent), giving the SPD a higher share of seats. The largest surprise in this election was perhaps the performance of The Left party, who re-entered parliament after a surge in support saw them become the most popular party among young voters.
Romania: May will see a repeat of Romania’s annulled 2024 presidential election, which created a political crisis in its aftermath. The first round of voting from November returned a surprise result, where independent Călin Georgescu won a plurality of votes, at 23 percent. Georgescu was a political outsider and relatively unknown before the election, however, a large social media campaign, particularly on TikTok, saw his poll numbers surge from late-October and his right-wing, conservative campaign was popular among young and disenfranchised voters. As no candidate secured a majority, a runoff was scheduled between Georgescu and second-placed Elena Lasconi of the more centrist, liberal USR Party. Despite initially confirming the results, Romania’s Constitutional Court then reversed its decision in December, alleging that Georgescu’s campaign was coordinated and paid for by Russia. The annulment was condemned as politically motivated and undemocratic by many, including Lasconi, who was favorite to win the runoff. In the build up to the second election, Georgescu had an even stronger lead in the polls, however he was investigated for several offenses including promoting fascism and false information in February, and he was then banned from running in March by the electoral authority. His removal from the race has deepened the constitutional crisis, and there is an ongoing debate whether these events are a sign of strength or weakness of Romanian democracy.
Elsewhere in Europe: politics in Norway was thrown into crisis in January when the ruling coalition fell apart, but the return to politics of former-PM Jens Stoltenberg saw a significant shift in the polls. In Czechia, the right-wing ANO 2011 party remain the most popular in the country, and, based on opinion polls throughout 2024, will aim to win a parliamentary majority; and in Croatia, former-PM Zoran Milanović was re-elected as President in January.
This changel has come for several reasons. Firstly, a landslide victory in the Liberal leadership election saw Mark Carney named as new party leader and Prime Minister. Carney is a high-profile economist who is popular among voters, particularly for his role in navigating Canada's central bank through the 2008 financial crisis, where Canada outperformed most other advanced economies. He is also a political outsider, offering a new choice for many dissatisfied voters, particularly those unhappy with Trudeau or the New Democratic Party. Secondly, worsening relations with the U.S., traditionally Canada's closest ally and trade partner, have completely changed the course of this election. The new Trump administration has repeatedly called for Canada to forefeit its sovereignty and become its 51st state, while a trade war quickly developed between the two in the wake of the new U.S. trade policy. Public sentiment towards the U.S. is at an all-time low, and the economy is now the dominant issue in this election, sidelining popular Conservative issues such as immigration and housing. These developments bode well for Carney, who has a proven track record in navigating through economic crises, but it remains to be seen whether the current swell in support for the Liberals will hold until the election - which Carney moved up from October to April 28 - or whether the Conservatives have enough time to regain some of the ground lost in recent months.
Ecuador: the 2023 snap election in Ecuador was one of the most tumultuous in recent years, even involving the assassination of a leading candidate. The close election was ultimately won by outsider Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Action (ADN), who defeated Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement (RC), although the RC became the largest party in the Assembly. Noboa comes from a wealthy family, and at 33 years old was the youngest elected leader in the world. He is generally described as being business-orientated and somewhere in the center of the political spectrum, although a strong response to Ecuador’s growing security crisis resulted in a 60-day state of emergency in early 2024 that saw outbreaks of violence and prison riots across the country, with thousands arrested, which caused some to draw parallels with the more autocratic policies of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Initial reports suggest this crackdown was effective in reducing Ecuador’s homicide rate, and Noboa was not accused of consolidating his power in the same way as Bukele, but the measure was still incredibly divisive. The 2025 election took place in February and the results were incredibly close, with just a 0.2 percent difference in the popular vote between Noboa and González, while their parties each received 66 and 67 seats respectively. As no candidate won a majority, a runoff election will be held in April.
Elsewhere across Latin America and the Caribbean: Chile is guaranteed to elect a new president by November, while Bolivia may do the same; Argentina will hold its first legislative elections under Milei’s presidency, as will Venezuela following the controversial presidential election of 2024; and in the Caribbean, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago are just some of the countries holding general elections.
Another area that could potentially swing the election is the mining sector, whose lobbies wield significant influence in many western constituencies where winning margins were often slim in 2022. This sector has performed well under the Albanese government, however, the government’s refusal to budge on its proposed tax credit scheme as well as disagreements around topics including deals with workers unions and green initiatives, has resulted in pushback from the industry. The high-paying mining industry is popular among western voters, therefore winning its support has become a key objective of both major party campaigns.
The Philippines: Filipino politics is notoriously volatile, however late-2024 was particularly turbulent, including several politically motivated killings, international criminal investigations into former-President Rodrigo Duterte, as well as corruption accusations and assassination threats made by Vice President Sara Duterte (Rodrigo’s daughter) against sitting President Bongbong Marcos. This turmoil came at a time of rising tensions with China, and also followed a destructive and costly typhoon season, contributing to Marcos’ net approval rating turning negative for the first time since taking office in 2022. However, President Marcos’ Bagong Pilipinas Alliance currently includes the five largest parties in Congress, with a healthy majority, therefore this year's legislative election is unlikely to cause a massive shift of power in the Philippines.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific: Asia's five most populous democracies held elections in 2024, therefore this year may seem quiet by comparison; but, in November, Singapore will hold its first election since Lee Hsien Loong resigned in 2024 after 20 years as Prime Minister; voters in Japan will head to the polls for the second time in a year to elect half its upper house; and in January, an indirect election saw military leader General Joseph Aoun elected as President of Lebanon following a three year process filled with economic, political, and security crises.
France: while not due until 2029, France may have a repeat of 2024 and hold another snap legislative election in 2025. The constitution prevents more than one election every 12 months, but since few were satisfied with the outcome in 2024, and following the resignation of the new Prime Minister and government in December, French voters may head to the polls again. 2024 saw huge gains for both the right and left-wing blocs, and as much of the dissatisfaction was directed at the centrist parties and President Macron, therefore this election could see a widening of France’s political divide and have large implications for the presidential election in early-2027.
Bangladesh: the Bangladesh election of January 2024 returned a sweeping victory to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League but was widely discredited as a farce with fewer than 10 percent of eligible voters participating. While this was unsurprising to many, what followed in August was one of the largest political shakeups in Bangladesh’s history. In June, Anti-government protests against the reinstatement of unpopular job quotas saw hundreds killed by authorities, with thousands arrested or injured. However, the “non-cooperation movement” toppled the government within two months, causing Hasina to flee to India and bringing her decades-long reign to an end. Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the head of a caretaker government and has committed to new elections in late-2025 or early-2026, depending on when specific political and judicial reforms can be implemented.
South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol declaration of martial law in early-December created a political crisis that would eventually lead to his impeachement, suspension, and arrest. In what many view as a self-coup, the president sought to seize power from the assembly, imprison several political opponents, and suspend the free press. The declaration was reversed in just six hours, but it caused violent clashes between the military and civilians, and its aftermath has seen several high-profile politicians resign or impeached (including Yoon's interim replacement). Yoon then barricaded himself in his home for over a month, and it took two arrest attempts before Yoon surrendered to authorities in mid-January. If Yoon resigns or is removed from office by the Constitutional Court, then a new presidential election must be held within 60 days.
Europe: political turmoil in the EU continues into the new year
Germany: after 16 years of relatively stable leadership under Angela Merkel and the center-right CDU, voters in the 2021 election turned elsewhere for direction, resulting in a coalition of the center-left SPD (led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz), the Greens, and the economically liberal FDP. This coalition, however, proved incredibly unpopular in its three years in power, with internal divisions causing hurdles in enacting policy. Common criticisms included unpopular immigration policy, perceived mismanagement of the energy crisis, changes to Germany’s military strategy, worsening infrastructure, and economic uncertainty, among others. The coalition collapsed in November, Scholz lost a confidence vote in December, and the election was moved up from September to February.Turnout in 2025's election was 84 percent; the highest since reunification. The results were relatively close to pre-election polling, yet they still sent shockwaves throughout the country and beyond. As predicted, the CDU won the most votes and will lead the new government, with Friedrich Merz as Chancellor. Merz was Merkel’s rival for party leadership in the early 2000s, but was sidelined during her tenure, before he returned to politics in 2021 and became party leader in 2022. The major headline, however, was the strong performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, who took almost 21 percent of the vote. This party is extremely divisive in Germany, and ran on a broadly anti-immigrant (especially Muslims), anti-Green, libertarian, and pro-Russia platform. The AfD is often criticized for its increasingly nationalist and far-right rhetoric, and several members have had links to neo-Nazi organizations or have used banned Nazi-era slogans, although party leadership often rejects this connection. A map of election results shows a clear political divide that aligns with Germany's Cold War partition: in the former-East (but not including Berlin), the AfD was the most popular party in 47 of 48 constituencies, but won only two of the West's 239 constituencies. Nonetheless, all major parties refused to work with the AfD in the parliament, therefore the CDU will (likely) form a government with the SPD, the third-largest party, in a so-called "grand coalition". The SPD recorded its lowest vote share in almost 150 years, but benefitted from the failure of the FDP and the new BSW parties to cross the five percent threshold to enter parliament (the BSW received 4.97 percent), giving the SPD a higher share of seats. The largest surprise in this election was perhaps the performance of The Left party, who re-entered parliament after a surge in support saw them become the most popular party among young voters.
Romania: May will see a repeat of Romania’s annulled 2024 presidential election, which created a political crisis in its aftermath. The first round of voting from November returned a surprise result, where independent Călin Georgescu won a plurality of votes, at 23 percent. Georgescu was a political outsider and relatively unknown before the election, however, a large social media campaign, particularly on TikTok, saw his poll numbers surge from late-October and his right-wing, conservative campaign was popular among young and disenfranchised voters. As no candidate secured a majority, a runoff was scheduled between Georgescu and second-placed Elena Lasconi of the more centrist, liberal USR Party. Despite initially confirming the results, Romania’s Constitutional Court then reversed its decision in December, alleging that Georgescu’s campaign was coordinated and paid for by Russia. The annulment was condemned as politically motivated and undemocratic by many, including Lasconi, who was favorite to win the runoff. In the build up to the second election, Georgescu had an even stronger lead in the polls, however he was investigated for several offenses including promoting fascism and false information in February, and he was then banned from running in March by the electoral authority. His removal from the race has deepened the constitutional crisis, and there is an ongoing debate whether these events are a sign of strength or weakness of Romanian democracy.
Elsewhere in Europe: politics in Norway was thrown into crisis in January when the ruling coalition fell apart, but the return to politics of former-PM Jens Stoltenberg saw a significant shift in the polls. In Czechia, the right-wing ANO 2011 party remain the most popular in the country, and, based on opinion polls throughout 2024, will aim to win a parliamentary majority; and in Croatia, former-PM Zoran Milanović was re-elected as President in January.
Americas: U.S.-Canada trade war reshapes what was a one-sided race
Canada: after almost a decade in office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation in January 2025. Although Trudeau led the Liberal Party to victory in the last three elections, his approval ratings tanked throughout 2024 due to recurring ethics scandals and his initial response to Trump’s proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports, as well as the compounding effect of inflation and economic stagnation that has burdened incumbents across the globe. Through 2024, the Conservative Party had held a 10-15 percent lead in the polls, rising to 25 percent in December. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre - a young, career politician with two decades of service in parliament, often described as a libertarian and right-wing populist, with a confrontational style of communication - was on course to become Canada's next PM, however, by March 2025, the Liberals' fortunes suddenly reversed.This changel has come for several reasons. Firstly, a landslide victory in the Liberal leadership election saw Mark Carney named as new party leader and Prime Minister. Carney is a high-profile economist who is popular among voters, particularly for his role in navigating Canada's central bank through the 2008 financial crisis, where Canada outperformed most other advanced economies. He is also a political outsider, offering a new choice for many dissatisfied voters, particularly those unhappy with Trudeau or the New Democratic Party. Secondly, worsening relations with the U.S., traditionally Canada's closest ally and trade partner, have completely changed the course of this election. The new Trump administration has repeatedly called for Canada to forefeit its sovereignty and become its 51st state, while a trade war quickly developed between the two in the wake of the new U.S. trade policy. Public sentiment towards the U.S. is at an all-time low, and the economy is now the dominant issue in this election, sidelining popular Conservative issues such as immigration and housing. These developments bode well for Carney, who has a proven track record in navigating through economic crises, but it remains to be seen whether the current swell in support for the Liberals will hold until the election - which Carney moved up from October to April 28 - or whether the Conservatives have enough time to regain some of the ground lost in recent months.
Ecuador: the 2023 snap election in Ecuador was one of the most tumultuous in recent years, even involving the assassination of a leading candidate. The close election was ultimately won by outsider Daniel Noboa of the National Democratic Action (ADN), who defeated Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement (RC), although the RC became the largest party in the Assembly. Noboa comes from a wealthy family, and at 33 years old was the youngest elected leader in the world. He is generally described as being business-orientated and somewhere in the center of the political spectrum, although a strong response to Ecuador’s growing security crisis resulted in a 60-day state of emergency in early 2024 that saw outbreaks of violence and prison riots across the country, with thousands arrested, which caused some to draw parallels with the more autocratic policies of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. Initial reports suggest this crackdown was effective in reducing Ecuador’s homicide rate, and Noboa was not accused of consolidating his power in the same way as Bukele, but the measure was still incredibly divisive. The 2025 election took place in February and the results were incredibly close, with just a 0.2 percent difference in the popular vote between Noboa and González, while their parties each received 66 and 67 seats respectively. As no candidate won a majority, a runoff election will be held in April.
Elsewhere across Latin America and the Caribbean: Chile is guaranteed to elect a new president by November, while Bolivia may do the same; Argentina will hold its first legislative elections under Milei’s presidency, as will Venezuela following the controversial presidential election of 2024; and in the Caribbean, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago are just some of the countries holding general elections.
Asia-Pacific: Coalition leads in Australia, but many predict a tight race
Australia: polling trends suggest Australia may also see a change of government in its May election, though many predict a tight race between the incumbent Labor Party, under Prime Minister Antony Albanese, and the Liberal-National Coalition, who ruled from 2013 to 2022. Most dissatisfaction with the incumbent government is driven by economic and cost-of-living issues, and the Coalition has held a consistent 5-10 percent lead through 2024. Yet, both sides continue to perform well on certain issues; the Labor party is strong in terms of healthcare and workers’ rights, while the Coalition perform better on topics such as the economy and immigration. With many individual races predicted to be close, the role of third parties and independents could become more important in constituencies where they attract voters looking for an alternative to the two major parties, as was the case in the 2022 election where independents won 10 seats as part of the Teal Movement.Another area that could potentially swing the election is the mining sector, whose lobbies wield significant influence in many western constituencies where winning margins were often slim in 2022. This sector has performed well under the Albanese government, however, the government’s refusal to budge on its proposed tax credit scheme as well as disagreements around topics including deals with workers unions and green initiatives, has resulted in pushback from the industry. The high-paying mining industry is popular among western voters, therefore winning its support has become a key objective of both major party campaigns.
The Philippines: Filipino politics is notoriously volatile, however late-2024 was particularly turbulent, including several politically motivated killings, international criminal investigations into former-President Rodrigo Duterte, as well as corruption accusations and assassination threats made by Vice President Sara Duterte (Rodrigo’s daughter) against sitting President Bongbong Marcos. This turmoil came at a time of rising tensions with China, and also followed a destructive and costly typhoon season, contributing to Marcos’ net approval rating turning negative for the first time since taking office in 2022. However, President Marcos’ Bagong Pilipinas Alliance currently includes the five largest parties in Congress, with a healthy majority, therefore this year's legislative election is unlikely to cause a massive shift of power in the Philippines.
Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific: Asia's five most populous democracies held elections in 2024, therefore this year may seem quiet by comparison; but, in November, Singapore will hold its first election since Lee Hsien Loong resigned in 2024 after 20 years as Prime Minister; voters in Japan will head to the polls for the second time in a year to elect half its upper house; and in January, an indirect election saw military leader General Joseph Aoun elected as President of Lebanon following a three year process filled with economic, political, and security crises.
Where else may hold elections?
The increasingly volatile nature of geopolitics has caused instability, civil unrest, and political risk-taking in many parts of the world. In 2024 alone there were snap or unscheduled elections in several countries, for a variety of reasons, such as France (political risk-taking), Iran (death of president), or Japan (PM resignation), and, given some events in late-2024, such elections may also take place in 2025. Additionally, countries involved in military conflicts, such as Israel, Myanmar, or Ukraine, or those facing insurgencies, such as Haiti or some Sahel states (where recent elections have repeatedly been postponed), are also potential candidates. Yet, these would be subject to a variety of factors, such as conflict outcomes, reconstruction periods, or logistical aspects. For example, in Syria, following the toppling of the Assad regime in December 2024, interim leaders have committed to new elections, but suggested they may not held until 2028 as a new census, political institutions, and voting infrastructure are just some of the hurdles to be overcome before elections can be held. Yet, many are predicting that 2025 could see elections in the following countries:France: while not due until 2029, France may have a repeat of 2024 and hold another snap legislative election in 2025. The constitution prevents more than one election every 12 months, but since few were satisfied with the outcome in 2024, and following the resignation of the new Prime Minister and government in December, French voters may head to the polls again. 2024 saw huge gains for both the right and left-wing blocs, and as much of the dissatisfaction was directed at the centrist parties and President Macron, therefore this election could see a widening of France’s political divide and have large implications for the presidential election in early-2027.
Bangladesh: the Bangladesh election of January 2024 returned a sweeping victory to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League but was widely discredited as a farce with fewer than 10 percent of eligible voters participating. While this was unsurprising to many, what followed in August was one of the largest political shakeups in Bangladesh’s history. In June, Anti-government protests against the reinstatement of unpopular job quotas saw hundreds killed by authorities, with thousands arrested or injured. However, the “non-cooperation movement” toppled the government within two months, causing Hasina to flee to India and bringing her decades-long reign to an end. Nobel Peace Prize winner Muhammad Yunus was appointed as the head of a caretaker government and has committed to new elections in late-2025 or early-2026, depending on when specific political and judicial reforms can be implemented.
South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol declaration of martial law in early-December created a political crisis that would eventually lead to his impeachement, suspension, and arrest. In what many view as a self-coup, the president sought to seize power from the assembly, imprison several political opponents, and suspend the free press. The declaration was reversed in just six hours, but it caused violent clashes between the military and civilians, and its aftermath has seen several high-profile politicians resign or impeached (including Yoon's interim replacement). Yoon then barricaded himself in his home for over a month, and it took two arrest attempts before Yoon surrendered to authorities in mid-January. If Yoon resigns or is removed from office by the Constitutional Court, then a new presidential election must be held within 60 days.
Aaron O'Neill
,
Apr 2, 2025
Aaron O'Neill
Research lead for society, economy, and politics: Europe & global
