China-Russia relations - statistics & facts
In recent times, Russian and Chinese leadership praised their partnership with growing affirmation. This is especially true since the beginning of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From an economic point of view, however, Russia’s intensified cooperation with China is mainly a means to circumvent western sanctions but offers limited prospects for long-term economic prosperity.
Although China is eager to benefit from mutual trade, it is hesitant when it comes to long-term economic engagement. Chinese direct investments in Russia are notoriously low and the interest in opening factories beyond the border and building up economic infrastructure is limited. Even regarding plans to expand the pipeline system that connects China to Russia’s oil and gas fields, the Chinese part shows weaker initiative and uses its negotiating power to demand price rebates.
Although the Russian-Chinese cooperation has improved over the last two decades, the relationship is characterized by deep-seated conflicting interests. The ultimate factor which strings the two parties together is the common rejection of a Western or U.S.-led world order. As long as this situation remains, both countries’ leaderships have a strong incentive to continue supporting each other.
A complex history
Despite the acclamation of its leadership, the relationship between Russia and China has a difficult history and was fraught with tension for most of its time. Mutual ties improved in the 1990s, and in 2001 both sides signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation that envisaged closer contacts. From the beginning, collaboration was designed as counterweight to what was perceived as U.S. hegemony and western domination. Economic and cultural contacts between the two countries increased slowly over the years, but until the escalation of the Ukraine war, both economies were still mainly oriented towards the West.Economic cooperation
Bilateral trade between Russia and China increased slowly after the turn of the century, but more than doubled since 2020. In 2023, trade with China already accounted for one third of Russia’s total trade. Trade between the two countries is highly complementary, with Russia mainly exporting natural resources and raw materials, while China delivers machines and electronics, vehicles, and other manufactured goods.Although China is eager to benefit from mutual trade, it is hesitant when it comes to long-term economic engagement. Chinese direct investments in Russia are notoriously low and the interest in opening factories beyond the border and building up economic infrastructure is limited. Even regarding plans to expand the pipeline system that connects China to Russia’s oil and gas fields, the Chinese part shows weaker initiative and uses its negotiating power to demand price rebates.
Potential conflicts
While the war in Ukraine has significantly increased Russia’s dependency on China, the Chinese side is keeping its options for cooperation open. This will most probably be felt in areas where the two countries’ interests differ, including the common border region, political influence in Central Asia, the relationship with India, and ultimately both countries’ individual struggle for supremacy. As Russia’s dependency on China is likely to further increase in the future, the country may lose ground to negotiate its own interests.Although the Russian-Chinese cooperation has improved over the last two decades, the relationship is characterized by deep-seated conflicting interests. The ultimate factor which strings the two parties together is the common rejection of a Western or U.S.-led world order. As long as this situation remains, both countries’ leaderships have a strong incentive to continue supporting each other.
