Over the past few decades, South Korea has achieved remarkable economic growth through its export-oriented, labor-intensive industrialization. It has grown to become the fourth-largest economy in Asia and
. Despite facing multiple global headwinds, such as the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea’s economy has remained remarkably resilient. At the same time, however, the country is currently grappling with a slowdown in economic growth, sparking concerns about the competitiveness and sustainability of its traditional growth model, which relies heavily on manufacturing exports.
History and recent macroeconomic developments
Following the Korean War (1950-1953), South Korea was one of the poorest aid-recipient countries in the world. To escape poverty, the military-led government of President Park Chung-hee (1961-1979) focused on developing the heavy chemical industry and promoting export-driven growth by providing substantial financial backing to a select few
large family-owned conglomerates such as Samsung and Hyundai – the so-called
chaebols. According to the Bank of Korea,
South Korea achieved an annual growth rate of approximately 8.7 percent during the 1970s, with the rate peaking at over nine percent on average annually in the 1980s.
Over the years, South Korea has weathered various economic challenges and consistently demonstrated its strength to bounce back and adjust to changing circumstances. Despite economic setbacks during the COVID-19 pandemic, the country quickly rebounded and outperformed other advanced economies due to its exceptional
export performance in semiconductors, achieving the strongest growth in South Korea's history in 2022.
Slowing growth and structural challenges
However, recent indicators suggest this manufacturing export model is slowly running out of steam. The annual GDP growth rate dropped to approximately two percent after the pandemic, accompanied by
a simultaneous decline in the contribution of manufacturing to the economy. Furthermore, South Korea's
labor productivity has consistently fallen behind the OECD average. In 2023, the Bank of Korea warned that, in the worst-case scenario, South Korea could experience negative economic growth by the 2040s. The government has been working to address these fundamental challenges by recognizing the need to improve productivity and create new sources of growth. However, in a country with the world's lowest birth rate and
a diminishing working-age population, this appears to be a long-term endeavor.
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