Legislative elections in France 2024 - statistics & facts
Between June 6-9, 2024, almost 200 million European citizens voted for the new members of the European Parliament . In this election, right-wing affiliated parties, as well as far-right and nationalist parties had strong performances in some of Europe’s largest countries such as Germany, and Italy. In France, the National Rally Party secured a historic victory by winning 30 of France's 81 seats. These significant results were expected, however, as Jordan Bardella's party were leading the polls prior to the election. After the results were published, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, aware of his party's defeat announced he had decided to dissolve the National Assembly, and therefore to call for new elections on the 30th of June and 7th of July 2024. Some commentators believed President Macron took that decision because he knew the National Rally might win, but hoped that the far-right poor leadership over the next three years would let people see how unfit they are to lead, so then his party would win the next presidential election in 2027.
In the meantime, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella find themselves in an advantageous position with a strong showing in the last election highlighting the far-right progression in French politics. However, the National Rally’s recent success in the European elections might not be enough to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Therefore, a coalition of the right parties was voiced by different leaders, such as Eric Ciotti, President of Les Républicains. Indeed, during the brief electoral campaign in June 2024, Eric Ciotti announced his desire to ally with the National Rally. However, it appeared that he decided without previous consultation with his party's leaders. As a result, some party members chose to follow Eric Ciotti in the alliance with the far-right, and others declared their opposition to the coalition.
After the results of the first round were published, the National Rally arrived first as expected, with around 29 percent of the votes, but when adding those of Eric Ciotti's followers, that number even reached 33 percent. In second place, with around 28 percent of the votes was the left coalition of the New Popular Front. Finally, Emmanuel Macron’s majority arrived far behind with only 20 percent of the votes. The large level of polarization between the three groups meant that, due to France's electoral system, there were an unprecedented number of three-way races in the second round of voting. In the week between both rounds, the New Popular Front and Ensemble alliances worked together in an attempt to defeat the National Rally, with many candidates stepping down from three-way races to encourage their supporters to vote tactically. This tactic proved incredibly effective, and the results of the election were seen as a major upset. The New Popular Front, emerged as the most popular alliance in the election, taking over 180 seats, and it was followed by the Ensemble alliance, with 168 seats. The National Rally bloc fell from being the most popular in the first round of voting to having the third largest share of seats in the assembly. However, no bloc won the 289 seats needed to form a government. A coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble seems the most obvious option, yet, despite working together during the election, there are significant ideological differences between the blocs, and it remains to be seen what the composition of the government will be in the coming months.
At the national level, the objective of political parties is to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, i.e. 289 deputies, to implement their program without having to negotiate with other political parties. However, it is possible that French people prefer the absence of absolute majority, which has supposedly led to more debate and forced the government into dialogue. According to a survey conducted in April 2024, two years after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, 65 percent of French respondents thought that way.
Dissolution of the National Assembly
After the legislative elections of 2022, more than one third of French people already had voiced their wish for Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly. Still, Emmanuel Macron’s decision, right after the European elections of 2024 came as a surprise. Since 1958 and the adoption of the Fifth Republic, the National Assembly has been dissolved only five times. In most cases, after the dissolution, the Presidential majority came out stronger by winning an absolute majority of deputies. The last time the National Assembly was dissolved, however, it led President Chirac to cohabitation, meaning that after the elections, one of the opposition groups succeeded in winning an absolute majority of seats, i.e. 289 deputies, therefore the President had to name a Prime Minister from this group. That was what occurred in 1997, when left-wing parties were unexpectedly victorious in the legislative elections and Chirac, a figure of the right, had to name Lionel Jospin, First Secretary of the Socialist Party, as his Prime Minister.Legislative elections of 2024
After two Presidential elections in 2017 and 2022, with no leftist representative in the second round and with the same duel Macron-Le Pen, leftist parties such as the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, and the Ecologists, decided to organize themselves for the legislative elections of 2022, under the "NUPES" (New Ecological and Social People's Union). The coalition ended up facing Macron's party candidates in most of the second round duels. For the legislative elections of June/ July 2024, left parties announced their intention to recreate this coalition, under the “New Popular Front”, an action that echoes a political formation created in the 1930s, in reaction to the rise of fascism in Europe.In the meantime, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella find themselves in an advantageous position with a strong showing in the last election highlighting the far-right progression in French politics. However, the National Rally’s recent success in the European elections might not be enough to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Therefore, a coalition of the right parties was voiced by different leaders, such as Eric Ciotti, President of Les Républicains. Indeed, during the brief electoral campaign in June 2024, Eric Ciotti announced his desire to ally with the National Rally. However, it appeared that he decided without previous consultation with his party's leaders. As a result, some party members chose to follow Eric Ciotti in the alliance with the far-right, and others declared their opposition to the coalition.
After the results of the first round were published, the National Rally arrived first as expected, with around 29 percent of the votes, but when adding those of Eric Ciotti's followers, that number even reached 33 percent. In second place, with around 28 percent of the votes was the left coalition of the New Popular Front. Finally, Emmanuel Macron’s majority arrived far behind with only 20 percent of the votes. The large level of polarization between the three groups meant that, due to France's electoral system, there were an unprecedented number of three-way races in the second round of voting. In the week between both rounds, the New Popular Front and Ensemble alliances worked together in an attempt to defeat the National Rally, with many candidates stepping down from three-way races to encourage their supporters to vote tactically. This tactic proved incredibly effective, and the results of the election were seen as a major upset. The New Popular Front, emerged as the most popular alliance in the election, taking over 180 seats, and it was followed by the Ensemble alliance, with 168 seats. The National Rally bloc fell from being the most popular in the first round of voting to having the third largest share of seats in the assembly. However, no bloc won the 289 seats needed to form a government. A coalition between the New Popular Front and Ensemble seems the most obvious option, yet, despite working together during the election, there are significant ideological differences between the blocs, and it remains to be seen what the composition of the government will be in the coming months.
How do France's legislative elections work?
Legislative elections are in principle organized every five years. Deputies are elected by direct universal suffrage using a two-round majority vote. The candidate having obtained an absolute majority of the votes cast is elected in the first round if they represent at least 25 percent of the registered voters. If no one meets these conditions, a second round is organized the following Sunday. Only candidates who obtained several votes equal to 12.5 percent of those registered can remain in the second round, usually this means only two candidates. However, in the 2024 legislative elections, the exceptionally high participation and the low number of candidates, generated an important number of triangulars, meaning that in 306 of the 577 electoral districts, three candidates qualified for the second round. The legislative elections, while a national ballot that elects the nation's representatives, are organized at the local level, by subdivisions of departments or electoral districts. There are 577, from which come the 577 deputies who sit in the National Assembly.At the national level, the objective of political parties is to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, i.e. 289 deputies, to implement their program without having to negotiate with other political parties. However, it is possible that French people prefer the absence of absolute majority, which has supposedly led to more debate and forced the government into dialogue. According to a survey conducted in April 2024, two years after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, 65 percent of French respondents thought that way.
