Erick Burgueño Salas
Research expert covering climate change and the water industry
Climate change in the UK - statistics & facts
2023 and 2022 were the hottest years on record in the UK, both with an average annual temperature of ten degrees Celsius. In July 2022, several counties across Great Britain reported their highest maximum daily temperatures since records started, some even surpassing 40 degrees Celsius. This increase in temperatures has been at least partially associated with climate change. The more frequent scorching temperatures are not the only climate-related problem that Brits will face in the coming years.
In economic terms, climate change is forecast to represent a financial burden for Britain. Economic losses due to climate change are expected to reach 3.3 percent of the GDP by 2060 and up to 7.4 percent by the end of the century, in a current policies, high GHG emissions scenario. In contrast, this figure could remain stable at around 2.3 percent of GDP in the second half of the century if a high mitigation policy was to be implemented.
Based on policies as of September 2023, annual GHG emissions in the UK were forecast between 330 and 390 MtCO₂e by 2030. To manage the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, models show the UK must reduce its annual emissions to 239 MtCO₂e by that same year. As such, the newly elected administration has a hard task on its shoulders: to shield the UK from the strikes of climate change, while shifting the economy off the cradle of the industrial revolution into a net-zero future.
Climate change impacts
With an increase in average temperatures, the delicate balance in the climate is being modified, bringing severe consequences like prolonged droughts, more severe storms, and more extreme weather-related events in general. Forest and wild land fires have been hitting the UK hard, with almost 130,000 hectares of land burned since 2010, an area nearly the size of Greater Manchester. Nevertheless, wildfires are still less impactful for British citizens than other weather disasters. Between 2012 and 2023, around 60,000 people were internally displaced due to storm and flooding events in the UK, making them the most impactful natural disasters in the country.In economic terms, climate change is forecast to represent a financial burden for Britain. Economic losses due to climate change are expected to reach 3.3 percent of the GDP by 2060 and up to 7.4 percent by the end of the century, in a current policies, high GHG emissions scenario. In contrast, this figure could remain stable at around 2.3 percent of GDP in the second half of the century if a high mitigation policy was to be implemented.
Climate policies on the wrong path
Even though GHG emissions in the UK have decreased by 47 percent since the beginning of the century, the targeted net-zero by 2050 is still a long and winding road away. Three years after the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) was held in Glasgow, the new Labour government will have to navigate serious climate U-turns set in the past years. Keir Starmer’s administration has already announced a comeback in the phase-out of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030, with hybrids allowed to remain in the market until 2035. Starmer has also pledged to get the UK’s power system off fossil fuels by 2030, a task labeled as almost impossible from industry experts, due to the country’s strong relationships with gas and oil companies.Based on policies as of September 2023, annual GHG emissions in the UK were forecast between 330 and 390 MtCO₂e by 2030. To manage the target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, models show the UK must reduce its annual emissions to 239 MtCO₂e by that same year. As such, the newly elected administration has a hard task on its shoulders: to shield the UK from the strikes of climate change, while shifting the economy off the cradle of the industrial revolution into a net-zero future.
