Catalina Espinosa
Research expert covering society, economy, and politics for Europe and the EU
EU Enlargement - Statistics & Facts
The European Union has expanded its membership base several times since its founding in 1957. Through accession rounds in 1973 (Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom), 1981-1986 (Greece, Spain, Portugal), 1995 (Austria, Finland, Sweden), and 2004-2013 (Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Romania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia) the EU has expanded from its original six members (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands) to the 27 members its stands at today. The future expansion of the union is one of the most controversial topics in European policy today, with the European Commission seeing the integration of the remaining countries of south-eastern Europe into the bloc as an imperative to secure peace and stability on the continent, while many nationalist or eurosceptic politicians are especially critical of this process, notably with regards to Turkey's accession. The issue of expansion has been put back on the political table by European Council President Charles Michel, who has set 2030 as an aspirational date for the next round of countries joining the union.
The negotiation process is supposed to ensure that a candidate country has made sufficient efforts to converge towards the EU's standards in terms of economy, politics, and the rule of law. After a country has satisfied the EU's requirements, an accession treaty is then drafted and must be approved by the European Council and the European Parliament before it is signed by the parties. Once the accession treaty has been ratified by all parties, the country then becomes a member of the EU on the date set out in the treaty. If the current candidate countries manage to conclude their negotiations and join the union by the aspirational date of 2030 set by European Council President Charles Michel, it will be the second largest expansion of the EU ever, only beaten by the accession of 10 countries in 2004.
Of the remaining countries in Europe who are not EU members, Iceland (which had applied for membership in 2009, but withdrew its application in 2013), Norway (a former candidate country whose citizens rejected membership in 1972 and 1994), Switzerland (whose citizens rejected membership in 1995 and 2001), and the United Kingdom (which left the EU in 2020, but retains a large pro-EU constituency) are considered possible future members, although none have plans to join as of 2023. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, and the Russian Federation are unlikely to join the EU at any point due to either a lack of will to join from these countries, poor relations with the EU and its members, or due to concerns over the rule of law and democracy.
What is the process for joining the European Union?
In order to join the European Union, a country must first submit a membership application to the European Council, which then must be agreed upon by all EU member states before formal accession negotiations may begin. Once agreed upon, the country then becomes a candidate for membership and must fulfill a number of political, economic, and administrative/institutional conditions, known as the Copenhagen criteria. Apart from the conditions which a country must fulfill to join, the public opinion in EU member states also plays a role in the process, with skepticism from many western European publics being cited as a key reason for the slow progress in Turkey and some Balkan countries joining.The negotiation process is supposed to ensure that a candidate country has made sufficient efforts to converge towards the EU's standards in terms of economy, politics, and the rule of law. After a country has satisfied the EU's requirements, an accession treaty is then drafted and must be approved by the European Council and the European Parliament before it is signed by the parties. Once the accession treaty has been ratified by all parties, the country then becomes a member of the EU on the date set out in the treaty. If the current candidate countries manage to conclude their negotiations and join the union by the aspirational date of 2030 set by European Council President Charles Michel, it will be the second largest expansion of the EU ever, only beaten by the accession of 10 countries in 2004.
Which countries are likely to join the EU?
As of 2023, there are eight official candidates for future EU membership: Albania, Bosnia & Herzogovina, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine. In addition, Georgia and Kosovo have applied for membership in 2022 and have been recognized by the European Commission as potential future members, however, Kosovo's sovereignty is contested by Serbia, another candidate country, and is not recognized by five EU member states, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Spain. Negotiations between the EU and Turkey have been suspended since 2019, due to a lack of progress by Turkey in meeting the EU's accession criteria and due to concerns with human rights and the rule of law in the country.Of the remaining countries in Europe who are not EU members, Iceland (which had applied for membership in 2009, but withdrew its application in 2013), Norway (a former candidate country whose citizens rejected membership in 1972 and 1994), Switzerland (whose citizens rejected membership in 1995 and 2001), and the United Kingdom (which left the EU in 2020, but retains a large pro-EU constituency) are considered possible future members, although none have plans to join as of 2023. Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, and the Russian Federation are unlikely to join the EU at any point due to either a lack of will to join from these countries, poor relations with the EU and its members, or due to concerns over the rule of law and democracy.
