Bruna Alves
Research lead covering environment and sustainability
Emissions in Brazil - statistics & facts
When discussing climate targets and the road to net-zero, the United States, China, and India – the three largest carbon dioxide emitters worldwide – are often the focus of attention. However, while CO₂ emissions in Brazil did not rank among the top 10 in 2021, the role of Latin America’s largest economy should not be understated. When considering both fossil and land-use change emissions, Brazil ranks fourth in the world in cumulative emissions since 1850. It was also among the top five methane emitters in 2021. With emissions on an upward trend for over a decade, Brazil still has a long road ahead toward reaching net-zero by 2050.
Modelled pathways estimate that the new emissions limit for 2030 would not be compatible with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, although it would still be sufficient to keep the average temperature increase below two degrees. Even more concerning, forecasts show that based on policies and actions currently in place in Brazil, GHG emissions would fall short of the target set for 2030. While Brazil’s new president – in office since January 2023 – has vowed to reduce deforestation in the country, the country’s energy strategy still sees growth in oil and gas production in the coming years, and in the use of the latter for electricity production.
The main sources of Brazil’s GHG emissions
In 2021, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil were estimated at 2.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e), the highest figure recorded since 2005. Nearly half of this value was attributed to changes in land-use and forests, as GHG emissions from this sector have nearly doubled in a decade. Deforestation rates in Brazil, in particular in the Amazon region, have seen consistent growth in recent years, driven by illegal logging and mining, and most importantly, by the expansion of land for cattle farming. Two sides of the same coin, GHG emissions from the agriculture and livestock sector have seen continuous growth for at least three decades, ranking as the second-largest source of emissions in the country. Meanwhile, the energy sector followed in third, responsible for less than 20 percent of emissions in 2021.The future of Brazilian emissions
In March 2022, Brazil submitted the second update to its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the Paris Agreement. It reinforced the country’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions by 37 percent by 2025 and 50 percent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Although an improvement from the NDC update submitted two years earlier, the document has raised criticism due to a change in methodology for the calculation of base year emissions, which makes the new target less ambitious than the original NDC submitted in 2016.Modelled pathways estimate that the new emissions limit for 2030 would not be compatible with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, although it would still be sufficient to keep the average temperature increase below two degrees. Even more concerning, forecasts show that based on policies and actions currently in place in Brazil, GHG emissions would fall short of the target set for 2030. While Brazil’s new president – in office since January 2023 – has vowed to reduce deforestation in the country, the country’s energy strategy still sees growth in oil and gas production in the coming years, and in the use of the latter for electricity production.
