The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a long-term economic and political strategy of China to accelerate economic development at home and in emerging countries and to foster China’s global influence. The BRI faced some setbacks recently, especially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with China’s investment in BRI countries dropping by nearly half to around 60 billion U.S. dollars annually. However, the BRI will most likely remain an important tool of China’s foreign policy and economic strategy.
The concept of the BRI
The BRI was initiated by President Xi Jinping in 2013 and defined two main developmental corridors: the westward overland “Silk Road Economic Belt”, connecting China with Central Asia and Europe, and the Southern “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road” running through South and Southeast Asia and reaching as far as Africa and Latin America. The primary goal of the initiative was to address the vast infrastructure demand of developing countries and meet this demand with China’s industrial overcapacities and global ambitions. Besides generating new infrastructure projects for Chinese companies and fostering trade and investment, China’s objective was to create its own global sphere of influence by aligning partner countries with China’s long-term strategic interests. As of April 2023, 149 countries had joined the BRI by signing Memorandums of Understanding.
In recent years, the Chinese government has tried to improve the shortcomings of the initial BRI concept and addressed problems with defaulting loans and unprofitable investments. At the same time, green development guidelines and plans for digital connectivity were included in the initiative. This underlines that the BRI is still seen as a significant economic and political tool by the Chinese government.
The economic impact of the BRI
As China does not publish comprehensive data about investment projects in all BRI partner countries, conflicting figures exist about China’s overall engagement. According to estimates based on transactional data, the value of China’s investment and construction projects in 147 BRI countries totaled around 67.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2022. This was far less than before the COVID-19 pandemic when annual investments had been valued above 100 billion U.S. dollars. However, the share of BRI countries in China’s total outbound investment increased at the same time. This
growing importance of BRI countries can also be seen in China’s international trade, with BRI partners accounting for 29.7 percent of total trade in 2021, up from 25 percent in 2019.
China’s trade with major BRI countries likewise more than doubled from 2015 to 2022, underpinning the importance of BRI countries for China’s future economic development.
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