UK election polls 2024

As of June 27, 2024, 37 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in the next general election, due to be held on July 4, 2024, compared with 17 percent who would vote for the Conservative Party. The ruling Conservatives have trailed Labour in the polls throughout 2022 and 2023, with a huge gap emerging in September 2022 when Liz Truss came to power. Truss' short time as Prime Minister was widely seen as a disaster for the country and her party, and she was succeeded by Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister that October. Labour has maintained their lead in the polls since Sunak became Prime Minister, and would win the next general election based on the most recent polls.

Sunak gambles on July election

On May 22, 2024, Rishi Sunak announced his decision to hold the next UK general election on July 4. Unlike many other democracies, general elections in the UK have no fixed date, with the power to call one resting with the Prime Minister, although this must be done at least every five years. While the last election in 2019 was held in the winter, this was mainly due to the political crisis surrounding the UK's exit from the EU. Sunak's surprise announcement came shortly after some positive economic figures were released in the UK. Sunak may hope this will improve his poor job ratings and perhaps boost the government's approval. The job of catching Labour in the polls by July may be a long shot for the Conservatives, especially as no ground was made up in 2023.

Sunak's five pledges - 2023

After a tough 2022, in which Britain suffered through its worst cost of living crisis in a generation, the economy was consistently identified as the main issue facing the country, just ahead of healthcare. To respond to these concerns, Rishi Sunak started 2023 with five pledges; halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting times, and stop small boats. Over a year on from this announcement, just one pledge can be said to be realized, with CPI inflation falling from 10.1 percent at the start of the year to 2.3 percent by April 2024. There is some ambiguity regarding the success of some of the other pledges. The economy shrank in the last two quarters of 2023 but has since started to grow again. National debt has increased slightly, while small boat arrivals are down from 2022, but still higher than in most other years. The pledge to cut NHS waiting times was not fulfilled either, with the number of people awaiting treatment rising in 2023.

Voting intentions in a general election in the United Kingdom from July 6, 2017 to June 27, 2024

Characteristic	Conservatives	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Reform UK	Green Party
Jun 27, 24	20%	37%	13%	17%	7%
Jun 25, 24	18%	36%	15%	17%	8%
Jun 20, 24	19%	37%	13%	18%	6%
Jun 18, 24	20%	36%	14%	18%	7%
Jun 13, 24	18%	37%	14%	19%	7%
Jun 11, 24	18%	38%	15%	17%	8%
Jun 6, 24	19%	41%	11%	16%	7%
Jun 4, 24**	19%	40%	10%	17%	7%
May 30, 24	21%	46%	8%	15%	6%
May 28, 24	20%	47%	9%	12%	7%
May 24, 24	22%	44%	9%	14%	6%
May 24*	18%	48%	9%	13%	7%
Apr 24	20%	43%	8%	16%	8%
Mar 24	20%	47%	9%	13%	5%
Feb 24	21%	46%	9%	12%	7%
Jan 24	22%	46%	10%	11%	7%
Dec 23	22%	45%	10%	11%	7%
Nov 23	23%	47%	10%	8%	7%
Oct 23	24%	45%	11%	8%	7%
Sep 23	24%	46%	10%	6%	7%
Aug 23	25%	47%	10%	7%	6%
Jul 23	22%	47%	9%	9%	7%
Jun 23	26%	42%	11%	7%	8%
May 23	26%	43%	10%	6%	7%
Apr 23	27%	44%	9%	6%	7%
Mar 23	23%	45%	10%	7%	7%
Feb 23	24%	47%	10%	6%	6%
Jan 23	25%	46%	9%	7%	6%
Dec 22	24%	48%	9%	8%	6%
Nov 22	24%	50%	9%	6%	5%
Oct 22	22%	52%	9%	5%	6%
Sep 22	29%	44%	10%	3%	7%
Aug 22	33%	37%	11%	3%	8%
Jul 22	29%	40%	15%	3%	6%
Jun 22	33%	39%	10%	4%	6%
May 22	35%	36%	10%	4%	8%
Apr 22	33%	39%	9%	3%	8%
Mar 22	35%	37%	7%	5%	8%
Feb 22	32%	41%	10%	4%	6%
Jan 22	28%	38%	10%	4%	7%
Dec 21	33%	37%	9%	6%	7%
Nov 21	35%	35%	8%	4%	10%
Oct 21	37%	33%	9%	4%	10%
Sep 21	33%	35%	10%	5%	9%
Aug 21	40%	32%	9%	3%	8%
Jul 21	39%	34%	8%	3%	9%
Jun 21	46%	30%	6%	2%	9%
May 21	45%	30%	7%	2%	8%
Apr 21	42%	34%	7%	3%	6%
Mar 21	45%	32%	6%	3%	7%
Feb 21	41%	37%	6%	3%	6%
Jan 21	39%	39%	6%	3%	6%
Dec 20	38%	38%	6%	3%	5%
Nov 20	35%	40%	7%	2%	4%
Oct 20	41%	38%	5%	3%	6%
Sep 20	40%	40%	6%	3%	4%
Aug 20	42%	36%	8%	2%	5%
Jul 20	46%	36%	5%	2%	3%
Jun 20	45%	37%	6%	2%	4%
May 20	48%	33%	6%	2%	5%
Apr 20	53%	32%	5%	1%	3%
Mar 20	52%	28%	8%	1%	5%
Feb 20	49%	30%	8%	2%	4%
Jan 20	49%	29%	10%	2%	4%
Dec 19	43%	33%	13%	3%	4%
Nov 19	38%	25%	16%	11%	5%
Oct 19	35%	22%	20%	12%	6%
Sep 19	35%	25%	16%	11%	7%
Aug 19	31%	22%	21%	14%	7%
Jul 19	24%	18%	19%	22%	10%
Jun 19	18%	20%	20%	26%	9%
May 19	24%	24%	16%	18%	7%
Apr 19	36%	33%	11%	5%	4%
Mar 19	40%	31%	11%	-	4%
Feb 19	41%	34%	10%	-	4%
Jan 19	39%	34%	11%	-	4%
Dec 18	40%	38%	9%	-	4%
Nov 18	41%	37%	8%	-	4%
Oct 18	41%	37%	9%	-	3%
Sep 18	39%	35%	11%	-	4%
Aug 18	41%	38%	8%	-	3%
Jul 18	41%	40%	9%	-	2%
Jun 18	42%	39%	8%	-	3%
May 18	43%	38%	9%	-	2%
Apr 18	42%	41%	7%	-	2%
Mar 18	41%	43%	7%	-	2%
Feb 18	41%	42%	7%	-	2%
Jan 18	40%	41%	9%	-	5%
Dec 17	40%	41%	7%	-	2%
Nov 17	40%	43%	7%	-	2%
Oct 17	40%	42%	7%	-	2%
Sep 17	41%	42%	7%	-	2%
Aug 17	41%	42%	8%	-	1%
Jul 17	38%	46%	6%	-	1%

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Release date

July 2024

More information

Region

United Kingdom (Great Britain)

Survey time period

January 2020 to June 2024

Number of respondents

1,092 to 1,749 per wave

Age group

18 years and older

Special properties

GB Adults

Method of interview

Online survey

Supplementary notes

*Polls after May 22, 2024, are more regular due to the calling of the 2024 general election on that date.

**New methodology from June 4, 2024 based on MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) model

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