Impact on global economy due to climate change by scenario Q4 2048

Published by

Feb 17, 2023

Climate change is a phenomenon which has been evident since the Industrial Revolution and has progressed more quickly over the last decades. It has environmental, human health, social, political and economic implications worldwide. A forecast for the end of 2048 indicates that several countries globally would face a negative deviation from their baseline GDP. Based on this projection for Q4 2048, Saudi Arabia is projected to experience a decrease of almost 11 percent in its real GDP, in a scenario where global temperatures increase by 4.1 degrees Celsius, compared to the period from 1986 to 2005.

Deviation of real GDP from baseline due to climate change in select countries worldwide by Q4 2048, by scenario*

Characteristic	RCP 2.6	RCP4.5	RCP 6.0	RCP 8.5
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Release date

July 2019

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2019

Supplementary notes

* Scenarios are defined by the source as follows:
RCP 2.6: Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 2.6 watts/m2. CO2- equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 421 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 1°C over the base period.
RCP 4.5. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 4.5 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 538 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 1.9°C over the base period.
RCP 6.0. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 6.0 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 670 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 2.4°C over the base period.
RCP 8.5. Radiative forcing value in the year 2100 is 8.5 W/m2. CO2-equivalent atmospheric concentration reaches 936 parts per million. Mean global temperature increases by 4.1°C over the base period.
Base period: 1986 to 2005

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