Non-residential construction spending forecast in the U.S. 2025-2026

Based on short-term projections, the U.S. non-residential construction market is expected to increase by approximately two percent in 2024. That year, growth is expected to be the highest in the data center construction segment, with a year-on-year change of 21.9 percent. Meanwhile, the value of spending on warehouses was expected to decrease that year, but to recover in 2026. The value of private non-residential buildings put in place in the U.S. soared in 2023 and continued growing in 2024. That was similar to how public non-residential construction has evolved, which also had a noticeable growth in 2023 and 2024. 

Non-residential construction market

There are various drivers that impact the non-residential construction market and can be highly dependent on the sector. Demand for leisure travel has a major influence on the value of hotel construction in the United States. For example, construction spending on the hotels fell sharply in the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, when travel was constrained. On the other hand, the growth in the office building market is guided to a large extent by corporate relocations, the lack of vacant spaces in major metropolitans, and trends in the hybrid working policies of companies.

Industrial real estate receives most investment

The value of investment in commercial real estate in the U.S. fell significantly in 2022 and 2023, but it started recovering slightly in 2024. The value of investment in office real estate fell the most in the past years, but it grew at a faster pace than other segments in 2024.