Gas prices forecast in the UK 2023-2030

The price of gas in the United Kingdom was 0.99 British pounds pence per therm in 2023/24. While prices are expected to remain quite high, it is anticipated they will fall to slightly lower levels by 2024/25. Combined household expenditure on energy derived from gas reached 19.5 billion British pounds in 2022. Before 2022 spending had seen only slight fluctuations, with the most prominent being a jump to 16.7 billion British pounds in 2013. That year corresponds with supply problems from a Norwegian plant – the UK’s lead exporter – and below-average winter temperatures across the country.

Surging energy costs and the cost of living crisis

At the height of the UK's recent cost of living crisis in 2022, approximately 91 percent of UK households were experiencing rising prices compared with the previous month. It was during 2022 that the UK's CPI inflation rate reached a peak of 11.1 percent, in October of that year. Food and energy, in particular, were the main drivers of inflation during this period, with energy inflation reaching 26.6 percent, and food prices increasing by 18.2 percent at the height of the crisis. 

Global Inflation Crisis

The UK was not alone in suffering rapid inflation during this time period, with several countries across the world experiencing an inflation crisis. The roots of the crisis began as the global economy gradually emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Blocked-up supply chains, struggled to recover as quickly as consumer demand, with food and energy prices also facing upward pressure. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to Europe gradually weening itself of cheap Russian energy exports, while for several months Ukraine struggled to export crucial food supplies to the rest of the World.