National debt as a percentage of GDP in the UK 1900-2030
Public sector net debt amounted to 88.9 percent of gross domestic product in the United Kingdom during the 2023/24 financial year, rising to 97.8 percent when the Bank of England is included. This is the highest debt incurred by the government since the early 1960s. After peaking at 251.7 percent shortly after the end of the Second World War, government debt in the UK gradually fell, before a sharp increase in the late 2000s at the time of the global financial crisis.
Debt not expected to start falling until 2029/30
In 2022/23, the UK's government expenditure was approximately 1.15 trillion pounds, around 45.3 percent of GDP. This spending was financed by 1.02 trillion pounds of revenue raised, and 1.28 billion pounds of borrowing. Although the UK government can still borrow money in the future, it also needs to abide by certain fiscal rules, one of which is that debt should be falling within a five-year timeframe. Recent forecasts suggest that while this is expected to be the case, it is based on falling government deficits in the next five years.
Next government faces hard choices
Whoever wins the UK's 2024 general election will face tough economic choices in the coming years. Hitting fiscal targets, such as reducing the national debt, will require a careful balancing of the books, and possibly the need for either spending cuts or tax rises. The two major parties, Labour and the Conservatives, have both ruled out raising the main government tax sources, Income Tax, National Insurance, and VAT, and have so far remained silent on possible spending cuts. With limits on borrowing, and no tax rises or spending cuts, maintaining, let alone improving public services, will prove a challenging prospect for the next government.
