Mortgage originations in the U.S. 2012-2024, with a forecast until 2025

The U.S. mortgage market has declined notably since 2020 and 2021, mostly due to the effect of higher borrowing costs on refinance mortgages. The value of refinancing mortgage originations, amounted to 86 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, down from a peak of 851 billion U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter of 2020. The value of mortgage loans for the purchase of a property recorded milder fluctuations, with a value of 291 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2024, and a market peak of 477 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2022. According to the forecast, mortgage lending is expected to slightly increase until the end of 2025.

The cost of mortgage borrowing in the U.S.

Mortgage interest rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2022 and continued to increase in 2023. In 2020, a homebuyer could lock in a 30-year fixed interest rate of under three percent, whereas in 2023, the average rate for the same mortgage type exceeded seven percent. That has led to a decline in homebuyer sentiment, and an increasing share of the population pessimistic about buying a home in the current market. 

The effect of a slower housing market on property prices and rents

According to the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, housing prices experienced a slight correction in early 2023, as property transactions declined. Nevertheless, the index continued to grow in the following months. On the other hand, residential rents have increased steadily since 2000.