Total population of China 1980-2029

According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in January 2024, the Chinese population decreased by 2.08 million people to around 1,41 billion in 2023. This was a stronger decrease than expected by the IMF, which underestimated China's population decrease already in 2022. China arrived at the turning point of its population growth earlier than expected by many observers, and current IMF estimates for the total population until 2029 very likely need to be adjusted downwards.

Population development in China

China had for a long time been the country with the largest population worldwide, but according to UN estimates, it has been overtaken by India in 2023. As the population in India is still growing, the country is very likely to remain being home of the largest population on earth in the near future. Due to several mechanisms put into place by the Chinese government as well as changing circumstances in the working and social environment of the Chinese people, population growth has subsided over the past decades, displaying an annual population growth rate of -0.15 percent in 2023. Nevertheless, compared to the world population in total, China held a share of about 18 percent of the overall global population in 2022.

China's aging population

In terms of demographic developments, the birth control efforts of the Chinese government had considerable effects on the demographic pyramid in China. Upon closer examination of the age distribution, a clear trend of an aging population becomes visible. In order to curb the negative effects of an aging population, the Chinese government abolished the one-child policy in 2015, which had been in effect since 1979, and introduced a three-child policy in May 2021. However, many Chinese parents nowadays are reluctant to have a second or third child, as is the case in most of the developed countries in the world. The number of births in China varied in the years following the abolishment of the one-child policy, but did not increase considerably. Among the reasons most prominent for parents not having more children are the rising living costs and costs for child care, growing work pressure, a growing trend towards self-realization and individualism, and changing social behaviors.