Urals crude oil price forecast 2024-2027

In 2024, the export price for one barrel of the Urals crude oil was expected to reach 70 U.S. dollars. In the following year, the Russian government expected it to decrease slightly, and in 2027, it was projected to reach 65.5 U.S. dollars per barrel. Urals is Russia's major export oil brand. 

Crude oil prices in Russia

Different types of oil, such as light-weight, low-sulfur (light-sweet) grades and heavier, higher-sulfur (heavy-sour) crudes, can create differences in oil prices. Prices of a barrel of crude oil tend to fluctuate throughout the year due to factors like sulfur content, specific gravity, and location. In recent years, the price of Russian Urals crude oil reached a high of almost 95 U.S. dollars per barrel in February 2022 and a low of 16.6 U.S. dollars per barrel in April 2020. The Urals oil is used as a basis for Russian export oil mixture – a mix of heavy, high-oil from the Urals and Volga region and a light Siberian oil. The oil and gas industry account for a large majority of the country’s export income. Many global sources of crude oil are located in areas that are prone to political upheavals or have production disrupted by political events.

Prices of major crude oil blends

In comparison, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price was estimated at 79.5 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024. Furthermore, Dubai Fateh oil prices have fluctuated in the past decade, having reached 82.1 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2023. Prices of petroleum products fluctuate in parallel with crude oil prices but can also depend on seasonality, market factors, or refining outages. Petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical feedstocks are usually the most relevant to consumers.