Projected total Medicaid federal and state expenditures 2020-2027

Between 2020 and 2027, both federal government and state spending are projected to increase by around 50 percent. During this period, federal expenditure is expected to rise from 419 billion U.S. dollars to approximately 625 billion U.S. dollars.

Growth in state Medicaid spending

The expansion of the Affordable Care Act created an incentive for states: if they extended their health care programs, the federal government would fully fund coverage for all of the newly eligible non-elderly adults. However, the matching rate started to decline from 2017, and states had to start contributing towards the new beneficiaries. In 2020, the federal government’s matching rate dropped to 90 percent, and this is expected to have a noticeable impact on Medicaid state spending.

The impact of the coronavirus on state budgets

Total Medicaid enrollment is expected to increase in the coming months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic downturn has resulted in widespread job losses, and many people will subsequently lose their employer-based health coverage. States are not only left facing higher than expected Medicaid costs, but they will also receive lower income tax revenues due to people being out of work and may have to pay out more in unemployment benefit payments.