According to recent industry calculations, Turkey will rank first among 20 countries worldwide in retail e-commerce development between 2024 and 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6 percent. The Turkish e-commerce market is currently valued at 3.4 trillion Turkish lira. India and Brazil are also among the fastest-growing e-commerce markets globally, with a CAGRs of over 11 percent. The global retail e-commerce CAGR was estimated at 9.5 percent during the same period.
Will the United States be the global e-commerce leader?
By 2026, the American online retail market value is forecast to surpass the 1.5 trillion U.S. dollar mark. Although the forecasted growth is strong, the American e-commerce market is not the world's biggest. In fact, the Chinese e-commerce market surpassed a value of one trillion U.S. dollars back in 2020, and is forecast to breach two trillion U.S. dollars in 2027.
Different KPIs lead to different insights
The Chinese and American online shopping markets are neck-and-neck, depending on the KPI selected. For instance, the average revenue per user is a useful KPI to determine the penetration rate of e-commerce in a country. For the U.S., the ARPU stands at roughly 4,500 U.S. dollars as of 2024. In China, this value is much lower, at just over 1,500 U.S. dollars.
Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country
Data provided by Statista Market Insights are estimates
The eCommerce market comprises the sale of physical goods via a digital channel to a private end consumer (B2C). This definition encompasses purchases via desktop computers (including notebooks and laptops) as well as purchases via mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablets). The following are not included in the eCommerce market: digitally distributed services (see instead: eServices), digital media downloads or streams, digitally distributed goods in B2B markets, and the digital purchase or resale of used, defective, or repaired goods (reCommerce and C2C). All monetary figures refer to the annual gross revenue and do not factor in shipping costs.
All figures are estimate. A detailed methodology can be found in the Statista Market Insights.
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Statista. (June 10, 2024). Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 05, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries
Statista. "Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country." Chart. June 10, 2024. Statista. Accessed November 05, 2024. https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries
Statista. (2024). Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 05, 2024. https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries
Statista. "Retail E-commerce Sales Compound Annual Growth Rate (Cagr) from 2024 to 2029, by Country." Statista, Statista Inc., 10 Jun 2024, https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries
Statista, Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country Statista, https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries (last visited November 05, 2024)
Retail e-commerce sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2029, by country [Graph], Statista, June 10, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/forecasts/220177/b2c-e-commerce-sales-cagr-forecast-for-selected-countries
