Forecasted world HRC benchmark steel price for 2023

After demand for steel dropped during the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, steel prices also took a hit. However, in 2021, hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices were projected to rebound to around 555 U.S. dollars per metric ton—a 15 percent recovery from the dip in prices that had continued into 2020.

The U.S. market by the end of 2021

The United States is among the markets where hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices are the highest in the world. It was expected that U.S. steel distributors and producers, such as Nucor and United States Steel, would benefit from the steel tariffs on U.S. imports that came into effect in the spring of 2018. At the same time, U.S. imports from the countries subjected to the so-called Section 232 tariffs were projected to decline. By the end of 2021, Canada was the main country of origin for the U.S.’s imports for consumption of steel products.

Impact on the Chinese market

Even though a large part of China's steel exports to the United States had already been restricted through antidumping or countervailing duties, trade tensions put pressure on steel markets worldwide, including China. Chinese steel product imports amounted to 717.7 million U.S. dollars, making it the ninth country of origin for steel products in the United States. Overall, rolled steel was the seventh largest category of Chinese export goods in 2021, amounting to almost 529 billion yuan (approximately 82 billion U.S. dollars). This comes after China's steel sector had a drop in sales to its domestic auto sector in early 2019.