Projected GHG emissions in the United States 2030-2050, by policy scenario

The United States is currently on track to cut its GHG emissions by 37 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, to 4.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). Prior to the passage of  IRA, BIL, CHIPS, and major EPA rules, the U.S. was set to emit 4.9 GtCO₂e by the same year.

Meanwhile, in a scenario where the U.S. shows continued climate leadership, it is projected the world's second-largest GHG emitter would cut its emissions by 52 percent by 2030 to 3.16 GtCO₂e, and reach net zero by 2050. However, in a scenario where climate and energy policies outlined in Project 2025 are implemented, U.S. GHG emissions would increase above the trajectory under current policies to 4.9 GtCO₂e. This would represent a difference of 27 percentage points between the two policy scenarios. As of 2022, U.S. GHG emissions had been reduced by roughly 17 percent, relative to 2005 levels.