U.S. emission projections under Project 2025

The United States is currently on track to cut its GHG emissions by 37 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, to 4.1 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). Prior to the passage of IRA, BIL, CHIPS, and major EPA rules, the U.S. was set to emit 4.9 GtCO₂e by the same year.

Meanwhile, in a scenario where the U.S. shows continued climate leadership, it is projected the world's second-largest GHG emitter would cut its emissions by 52 percent by 2030 to 3.16 GtCO₂e, and reach net zero by 2050. However, in a scenario where climate and energy policies outlined in Project 2025 are implemented, U.S. GHG emissions would increase above the trajectory under current policies to 4.9 GtCO₂e. This would represent a difference of 27 percentage points between the two policy scenarios. As of 2022, U.S. GHG emissions had been reduced by roughly 17 percent, relative to 2005 levels.

Projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States under 'Continued Climate Leadership' and Project 2025 scenarios by 2030 and 2050 (in million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)

Characteristic	2005 GHG emissions	Current policies	Pre IRA and EPA Rules	Project 2025 scenario	Continued Climate Leadership scenario
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Release date

August 2024

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

2005 to 2023

Supplementary notes

*2005 figure is a rounded estimate calculated by Statista using information provided by the source.

The “Continued Climate Leadership” scenario maps policies that would achieve the U.S. NDC of 50-52 percent reduction in U.S. GHG emissions relative to 2005 by 2030 and net zero GHG emissions by 2050. The “Project 2025” scenario maps the climate and energy policies outlined in Project 2025 into the EPS.

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