Natural gas is expected to continue playing a dominant role in the EU's space and water heating sector. For 2030, a forecast suggests that the natural gas share in final energy demand for heating would remain above 30 percent in most scenarios. However, a greater introduction of heat pumps and other alternative energy systems could see the natural gas share fall to below 20 percent by 2040.
Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario
Tertiary buildings refer to buildings occupied by the service sector.
Supplementary notes
The forecast scenarios reflect the potential transformation of the heating sector based on different decarbonization assumptions:
Direct-RES:Â focus on installations of heat pumps, biomass boilers, and solar thermal collectors. Electrification: focus on introducing more district electric heating and heat pumps. E-fuels:Â focus on gas-based heating systems and liquid fuel heating systems. Hydrogen:Â focus on gas-based heating systems. District heating:Â focus on biomass and solar thermal collectors. Best case: comparative assessment of all other scenarios yielding best possible result.
More information on methodology is available on pdf page 74 of the report.
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Publications Office of the European Union. (June 9, 2022). Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 19, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/
Publications Office of the European Union. "Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario." Chart. June 9, 2022. Statista. Accessed December 19, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/
Publications Office of the European Union. (2022). Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 19, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/
Publications Office of the European Union. "Share of Natural Gas in Space and Water Heating of Residential and Tertiary Buildings in The European Union in 2017, with a Forecast for 2030 and 2040, by Scenario." Statista, Statista Inc., 9 Jun 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/
Publications Office of the European Union, Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/ (last visited December 19, 2024)
Share of natural gas in space and water heating of residential and tertiary buildings in the European Union in 2017, with a forecast for 2030 and 2040, by scenario [Graph], Publications Office of the European Union, June 9, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1493736/eu-natural-gas-share-in-heating-forecast/
