U.S. presidential election polling Trump vs. Harris 2024

On July 21, Biden announced he was ending his bid for reelection, later endorsing Kamala Harris, who is the official Democratic nominee as of the Democratic National Convention in August. Although approval of Harris was once generally low, favorability of the vice president has spiked since announcing her presidential bid. 

Although the race is certainly closer since Harris began her campaign, polling has fluctuated, with support for Trump increasing just days before the election. National polling indicated that the two presidential hopefuls were 0.1 percentage points apart on November 4, 2024, making it nearly impossible to predict the results. 

While presidential polls are generally reliable in measuring national trends, they are not infallible, particularly in close races or predictions of Electoral College outcomes.