Possible coalitions based on election forecasts for the European elections 2024

After the elections to the European Parliament, which will take place between the 6th and 9th of June 2024, the party groupings in the parliament will need to form a coalition, to decide which groups will take the top jobs in the EU - namely, the presidency of the commission, parliament, and council, as well as the EU's high representative on foreign affairs and security policy. After the 2019 elections, the EPP and S&D (the two largest parties, who when they collaborate are referred to as the 'grand coaltion') were able to strike a deal whereby the EPP's Ursula von der Leyen would take the presidency of the European Commission, while the S&D's David Sassoli would become the president of the European Parliament and Josep Borell would become High Commissioner (in practice, the second-in-command in the European Commission).

As the grand coalition did not achieve a majority in parliament, they had to rely on the support of the liberal Renew Europe group, whose member Charles Michel became chairman of the European Council. As forecasts for the 2024 election show the EPP coming out as the largest party, Ursula von der Leyen appears likely to remain as president of the commission. There are two feasible coalitions for the EPP if these forecasts turn out to be accurate - a grand coalition plus Renew Europe, or, a grand coalition plus the Greens. No other possible coalition is set to gain enough seats to reach the 361 combined seats needed to form a majority in parliament, however, a late surge in the vote for right wing groups in the parliament could push the centre-right coalition closer to this number, as according to current forecasts they are only 16 seats short.