Seats forecast for the European Parliament elections in 2024

The 2024 European Parliament elections will take place between the 6th and 9th of June 2024, with a total of 720 seats to be won for the next five-year term of the parliament. The European People's Party, a center-right bloc lead by the current European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, are set to remain the largest party in parliament, albeit with a decline in the number of seats won compared to 2019. Other parties which are set to lose seats include the centre-left Socialists and Democrats group (S&D), the liberal-centrist Renew Europe group, and the left-environmentalist group the Greens/European Free Alliance.

The right-wing backlash against the EU

The main gains in the 2024 elections are forecast to be made by the populist and eurosceptic right-wing groups, the European Conservatives and Reformists group (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (I&D). The two groups are forecast to win 184 of the parliament's 720, although this may understate the right-wing bloc in the parliament, as some right-wing parties are affiliated with neither and fall under the "non-inscrits" category of parties without a group in parliament - this is notably the case for Fidesz in Hungary, who are set to win 16 of that country's 21 seats. 

Both the ECR and I&D are set to capitalize on dissatisfaction with governments across the continent, as many European countries have been struggling with cost of living crises caused by the uptick in inflation in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Parties in these groups have blamed the migration, environmental, and foreign policies of the EU and member state governments for the declining living standards of many Europeans. 

Uneven gains for populists and eurosceptics

While populist and eurosceptic groups are forecast to make the largest overall gains in the 2024 elections, this right-wing surge is not set to take place in all member states, with large states such as Germany, France, Italy, and Poland being the countries where the biggest gains will be made. On the other hand, there are notable exceptions to this trend, for instance, Spain is set to give only 7 of its 61 seats and Romania is set to give only 6 of its 33 seats to right-wing groups. Some smaller countries are also forecast to buck this trend entirely, with the winners of the elections in Czechia forecast to be Renew Europe, while in Ireland forecasts show the Left Group coming out of the elections as the largest group in parliament from that country.