By the middle of the 21st century, the projected economic impact on the members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise will reach almost 13 billion U.S. dollars, representing a fivefold increase compared to 2020 levels. Following the worst case scenario (SSP5-8.5), the average annual damages from coastal flooding in AOSIS members could reach almost 45 billion U.S. dollars by 2150.
Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario
(in billion U.S. dollars)
For more information on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP), go to supplementary notes
Supplementary notes
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP):
SSP1-1.9: very low GHG emissions - COā emissions cut to net zero around 2050.
SSP1-2.6: low GHG emissions - COā emissions cut to net zero around 2075.
SSP2-4.5: intermediate GHG emissions - COā emissions around current levels until 2050, then falling but not reaching net zero by 2100:
SSP3-7.0: high GHG emissions - COā emissions double by 2100.
SSP5-8.5: very high GHG emissions - COā emissions triple by 2075.
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Nature. (October 9, 2023). Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 26, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/
Nature. "Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars)." Chart. October 9, 2023. Statista. Accessed December 26, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/
Nature. (2023). Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 26, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/
Nature. "Projected Direct Economic Impacts on The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) Due to Sea Level Rise from 2020 to 2150, by Scenario (in Billion U.S. Dollars)." Statista, Statista Inc., 9 Oct 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/
Nature, Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/ (last visited December 26, 2024)
Projected direct economic impacts on the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) due to sea level rise from 2020 to 2150, by scenario (in billion U.S. dollars) [Graph], Nature, October 9, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1451336/direct-economic-impact-small-island-nations-sea-level-rise/
