Winning chance of Eurovision 2024, by country

Before the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 was taking place in Malmö, Sweden, Croatia's Baby Lasagna was the hot favorite to win the competition with his song “Rim Tim Tagi Dim”. As of May 11th, bookmakers predicted a winning chance of 43 percent for the Croatian song. This would mean the first win for Croatia as an independent country in the annual music competition.

However, the 2024 competition is an example that the predictions from betting odds aren't always accurate. On the evening of the final, Baby Lasagna actually finished in second position, which still meant the best result for the Balkan country up to date. Nemo won the 2024 contest with their song "The Code" representing Switzerland which had been waiting for a third victory in the competition for 36 years when the French-Canadian singer Céline Dion appeared on the international stage and secured the second win for Switzerland.

Betting odds subdued to a multitude of different factors

During the entire period of one Eurovision season, betting odds keep swinging back and forth due to a vast amount of different events and aspects that are taken into account by bookmakers. Between November/December and the actual contest in May, the odds change almost daily. In this period, national broadcasters announce participants and their songs or hold national competitions, in which the public gets to select their representative. Simultaneously, participants perform their songs publicly on television or other engagements to promote their songs. In April, several pre-Eurovision parties take place, whose performances can stir the betting odds quite a bit. Last but not least, the performances on the Eurovision stage itself, including the week of rehearsals, keep the winning chances moving by the hour. While Croatia and Switzerland were running neck and neck for the favorite position among bookmakers, Switzerland's betting odds began to crumble slightly in favor of Croatia, as rehearsals went on.

Spotify streams paint a different picture

While Baby Lasagna led the betting odds for the win, he only reached eighth position in terms of Spotify streams. Until one day before the Grand Final, his song managed to gather around 6.5 million streams on the platform. However, Italy's entry to the competition, “La noia”, sung by Angelina Mango, recorded more than 60 million streams in the same period, ranking top of the list.

Daily development of winning chance of finalists taking part in the Eurovision Song Contest between April and May 2024, by country

Characteristic	Croatia	Israel	Switzerland	France	Ireland	Ukraine	Italy	Greece	United Kingdom	Finland	Sweden	Lithuania	Norway	Austria	Georgia	Armenia	Spain	Estonia	Cyprus	Germany	Slovenia	Luxembourg	Portugal	Serbia	Latvia
May 11	43%	20%	15%	4%	4%	3%	2%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 10	40%	15%	13%	4%	5%	8%	4%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 9	43%	2%	20%	4%	6%	8%	4%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 8	40%	2%	16%	4%	7%	8%	8%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 7	35%	2%	15%	4%	6%	8%	10%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 6	28%	2%	16%	5%	6%	10%	12%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 5	25%	3%	17%	4%	4%	14%	12%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 4	24%	3%	17%	4%	4%	14%	13%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 3	24%	3%	17%	4%	4%	15%	12%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 2	24%	3%	18%	4%	3%	13%	11%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
May 1	20%	3%	23%	4%	2%	10%	12%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 30	17%	4%	24%	4%	2%	8%	12%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 29	17%	4%	24%	4%	2%	8%	12%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 28	17%	3%	23%	4%	2%	8%	12%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 27	17%	3%	23%	4%	2%	8%	11%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 26	17%	3%	24%	4%	2%	7%	11%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 25	17%	3%	20%	4%	2%	7%	11%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 24	17%	2%	20%	4%	2%	6%	11%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 23	18%	2%	20%	5%	2%	6%	10%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 22	19%	2%	20%	5%	2%	6%	11%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 21	18%	2%	20%	5%	2%	6%	11%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
April 20	18%	2%	20%	5%	2%	6%	11%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%