Portugal: opinion on future prime minister 2024

In December 2023, Pedro Nuno Santos, currently at the head of the Socialist Party (PS), was considered by the majority of respondents in Portugal to have the best chance of becoming prime minister. The leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Luís Montenegro, was seen as the front-runner by 29 percent of the survey population. The share of those who did not know or did not answer was 20 percent.

In the beginning of February 2024, Pedro Nuno maintained the lead when it came to having the best chance of becoming prime minister of Portugal, but lost percentual points. Montenegro, on the other hand, increased his share and saw 40 percent of respondents believing that he would be the next prime minister.

By the end of the month, Pedro Nuno was still ahead, but by a margin of just two points. The two politicians lost points, while the share of those who do not know or do not answer increased to 24 percent.

Public opinion on who has the best chance of becoming prime minister in Portugal from December 2023 to February 2024

Characteristic	December 18 to December 23, 2023	February 8 to February 13, 2024	February 23 to February 27, 2024
Pedro Nuno Santos (Socialist Party)	51%	43%	39%
Luís Montenegro (Social Democratic Party)	29%	40%	37%
Does not know or does not answer	20%	17%	24%

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Release date

March 2024

More information

Region

Portugal

Survey time period

December 2023 to February 2024

Number of respondents

809 respondents

Age group

18 years and older

Method of interview

Telephone interviews and online survey

Supplementary notes

The maximum sampling error is 3.4 percent for a 95 percent confidence interval.

The December 18 to December 23, 2023, poll may be found here.
The February 8 to February 13, 2024, poll may be found here.
The February 23 to February 27, 2024, poll may be found here.

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