Projected number of seats won in the next general election UK 2024
The next UK general election is set to take place on July 4, 2024 and recent MRP projections suggest the ruling Conservative party is heading for a landslide defeat, with the Labour Party winning 425 seats, and the Conservatives just 108 seats. This would represent a crushing defeat for the Conservative Party, not just at the expense of Labour, but of smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.
Sunak unable to close the gap as July 4 looms
When Rishi Sunak announced the date of the next general election on May 22, 2024 it ended months of speculation as to when the election would take place. Although Sunak likely hoped that more positive economic news regarding GDP growth and inflation would help him narrow the gap to Labour in the polls, this has not happened. While the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, is also quite unpopular, Sunak is viewed more unfavorably, perhaps also due to his association with the chaotic reigns of his predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.
Major stories of the campaign
The inability of the Conservative to close the gap on Labour has also not been helped by a series of unforced errors by the party. One of the main news stories at the start of June, for example, was Rishi Sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations in Normandy early, to attend a pre-planned interview. This has recently been overshadowed by an alleged insider betting scandal regarding Conservative election candidates and the date of the general election. Another key event has also been the return of Nigel Farage to mainstream UK politics, after he took over leadership of Reform UK early in the campaign. Farage's return gave the right-wing party a noticeable boost in the polls, mainly at the expense of the Conservatives.