The median estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under current policies is 56 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). This results in an emissions gap of 16 GtCO₂e consistent with limiting global warming to below two degrees Celsius. If the unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the below two degrees Celsius emissions gap would be reduced to 14 GtCO₂e. The full implementation of the conditional NDCs would reduce the emissions gap by a further three GtCO₂e.
Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Year and scenario
GHG emissions
Estimated gap for below 2°C
Estimated gap for beow 1.8°C
Estimated gap for below 1.5°C
2030 Current policies
56
16
22
24
2030 Unconditional NDCs
55
14
20
22
2030 Conditional NDCs
52
11
17
19
2035 Current policies continued
56
20
29
31
2035 Unconditional NDCs continued
54
18
27
29
2035 Conditional NDCs continued
51
15
24
26
2050 Current policies continued
55
35
43
46
2050 Unconditional NDCs and net-zero pledges using strict criteria continued
Figures are rounded to full GtCO₂e. GHG emissions have been aggregated using IPCC AR6 global warming potentials over 100 years.
The emissions gap is defined as the difference between the estimated global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of the latest NDCs and those under least-cost pathways aligned with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
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UNEP. (November 20, 2023). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved July 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)." Chart. November 20, 2023. Statista. Accessed July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. (2023). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Estimated Gap to Least-cost Pathways Consistent with Limiting Global Warming to Specific Levels from 2030 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent)." Statista, Statista Inc., 20 Nov 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP, Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/ (last visited July 22, 2024)
Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph], UNEP, November 20, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
