The median estimate of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 under current policies is 57 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO₂e). This results in an emissions gap of 16 GtCO₂e consistent with limiting global warming to below two degrees Celsius. If the unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the emissions gap for a below two degrees Celsius scenario would be reduced to 14 GtCO₂e. The full implementation of conditional NDCs would reduce the emissions gap by a further three GtCO₂e.
Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Year and scenario
GHG emissions (in GtCO2e)
Estimated gap for below 1.8°C (in GtCO2e)
Estimated gap for around 1.5°C (in GtCO2e)
Estimated gap for below 2°C (in GtCO2e)
2030 Current policies
57
22
24
16
2030 Unconditional NDCs
55
20
22
14
2030 Conditional NDCs
51
17
19
11
2035 Current policies continued
57
30
32
21
2035 Unconditional NDCs continued
54
27
29
18
2035 Conditional NDCs continued
51
24
26
15
2035 Conditional NDC + all net-zero pledges
43
16
19
8
2050 Current policies continued
56
44
48
36
2050 Conditional NDCs and all net-zero pledges
19
7
11
-1
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Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario
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Figures are rounded to full GtCO₂e. GHG emissions have been aggregated using IPCC AR6 global warming potentials over 100 years.
The emissions gap is defined as the difference between the estimated global GHG emissions resulting from full implementation of the latest NDCs and those under least-cost pathways aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal.
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UNEP. (October 24, 2024). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved April 12, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)." Chart. October 24, 2024. Statista. Accessed April 12, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. (2024). Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: April 12, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP. "Projected Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Estimated Gap to Least-cost Pathways Consistent with Limiting Global Warming to Specific Levels from 2030 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent)." Statista, Statista Inc., 24 Oct 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
UNEP, Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/ (last visited April 12, 2025)
Projected global greenhouse gas emissions and estimated gap to least-cost pathways consistent with limiting global warming to specific levels from 2030 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph], UNEP, October 24, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1440575/global-ghg-emissions-under-different-scenarios-and-the-emissions-gap/
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