Global carbon dioxide emissions from combustion and industrial processes are projected to drop to 31 billion metric tons (GtCO₂) by 2030 in the Achieved Commitments (AC) scenario, before falling to around 10 GtCO₂ per year by 2050. Despite these significant reductions, emissions would remain above a 1.5° Celsius pathway, resulting in a warming of approximately 1.6° Celsius by 2100. As such, steeper emissions reductions are required.
Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)
Includes process emissions from cement production, chemical production and refining, and negative emissions from applying CCUS.
Supplementary notes
*The remaining emissions in 2050 (~4Gt) are compensated by negative emissions from DACCS, BECCS, and reforestation.
Fading Momentum (FM) - Fading momentum in cost reductions, climate policies, and public sentiment will lead to prolonged dominance of fossil fuels.
Achieved Commitments (AC) - Net-zero commitments (excluding international bunkers) achieved by leading countries through purposeful policies; followers transition at slower pace.
1.5° Trajectory - A 1.5° pathway is adopted globally, driving rapid decarbonization investment and behavioral shifts.
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McKinsey & Company. (November 21, 2023). Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 04, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/
McKinsey & Company. "Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide)." Chart. November 21, 2023. Statista. Accessed November 04, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/
McKinsey & Company. (2023). Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 04, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/
McKinsey & Company. "Projected Carbon Dioxide (Co₂) Emissions Projections from Combustion and Industrial Processes Worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide)." Statista, Statista Inc., 21 Nov 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/
McKinsey & Company, Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/ (last visited November 04, 2024)
Projected carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions projections from combustion and industrial processes worldwide from 2022 to 2050, by scenario (in billion metric tons of carbon dioxide) [Graph], McKinsey & Company, November 21, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1426279/projected-co2-emissions-from-combustion-and-industrial-processes/
