Without substantial technological advancements and stricter climate policies, global greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping are projected to peak in 2030 at around 683 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e), before falling to an estimated 629.4 MtCO₂e in 2050.
Under a scenario that is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100, international shipping emissions would decrease to 564 MtCO₂e by 2050, according to World Data Lab.
Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario
(in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)
Characteristic
Business as usual
Do as we promised
We achieve the goal
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Business as usual - Depicts a scenario without drastic deviations in technology advancement or policy-making from past experiences. While there is typically still some technological progress in the form of reducing emissions intensities (stemming e.g. from energy efficiency gains) that are partly a result of policy actions, this scenario does not take into account announced policy pledges.
Do as we promised - Depicts a scenario where countries (or regions) fully implement their announced policies written down in their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). More ambitious climate action plans pursued by individual countries that are not part of the NDC (of the country itself or the submitting party) are not reflected on the WEC to retain consistency across countries. Hence, here the “we” in “Do as we promised” refers to countries or regions fulfilling their pledges in their NDCs.
We achieve the goal - Depicts a scenario outlining pathways for countries and sectors that are consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial times in 2100 as per the Paris agreement from 2015. The trajectories are derived under a global cost efficiency perspective, i.e. they outline the most cost-effective way of achieving the goal of 1.5 degree Celsius. They are not meant to reflect fair-share considerations based on e.g. cumulative historical emissions. Here, the “we” in “We achieve the goal” refers to the world achieving a global goal.
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World Data Lab. (August 16, 2024). Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved August 24, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/
World Data Lab. "Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent)." Chart. August 16, 2024. Statista. Accessed August 24, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/
World Data Lab. (2024). Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: August 24, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/
World Data Lab. "Projected International Shipping Greenhouse Gas Emissions Worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by Scenario (in Billion Tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent)." Statista, Statista Inc., 16 Aug 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/
World Data Lab, Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/ (last visited August 24, 2024)
Projected international shipping greenhouse gas emissions worldwide from 2020 to 2050, by scenario (in billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) [Graph], World Data Lab, August 16, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1404321/ghg-emission-pathways-worldwide-shipping/