Global international shipping GHG emission pathways 2020-2050, by scenario

Business as usual - Depicts a scenario without drastic deviations in technology advancement or policy-making from past experiences. While there is typically still some technological progress in the form of reducing emissions intensities (stemming e.g. from energy efficiency gains) that are partly a result of policy actions, this scenario does not take into account announced policy pledges.

Do as we promised - Depicts a scenario where countries (or regions) fully implement their announced policies written down in their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). More ambitious climate action plans pursued by individual countries that are not part of the NDC (of the country itself or the submitting party) are not reflected on the WEC to retain consistency across countries. Hence, here the “we” in “Do as we promised” refers to countries or regions fulfilling their pledges in their NDCs.

We achieve the goal - Depicts a scenario outlining pathways for countries and sectors that are consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial times in 2100 as per the Paris agreement from 2015. The trajectories are derived under a global cost efficiency perspective, i.e. they outline the most cost-effective way of achieving the goal of 1.5 degree Celsius. They are not meant to reflect fair-share considerations based on e.g. cumulative historical emissions. Here, the “we” in “We achieve the goal” refers to the world achieving a global goal.