EU Enlargement: public opinion on Ukraine being granted EU candidate status 2023

In response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine which began in February 2022, the European Union has supported Ukraine by providing financial and military aid, as well as by taking in millions of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the conflict. The European Commission has additionally promised to set Ukraine on a fast-track for EU membership once the conflict is over, with this decision being supported by most member states and a majority of EU survey respondents. While the decision is seen to reflect the EU's commitment to supporting Ukraine in winning its war against the Russian Federation and reclaiming its annexed territories in the south and east of the country, some in the EU see the decision as being rushed and not reflecting the realities of what Ukraine will need to achieve to reach the EU's membership requirements. 

Ukraine's biggest supporters in the EU 

Among the countries who show the highest levels of support for Ukraine membership among their citizens are Portugal, Sweden, Lithuania, Croatia, and Poland. For many of these countries, notably Poland and Lithuania who both share a border with Russia, the aim of bringing Ukraine into the EU is the only way to ensure a just ending to Russia's war of aggression, as it would allow the rebuilding and development of Ukraine within the EU, as well as fulfilling the Ukrainian citizens' desire to become an EU member state and to break away from the influence of the Kremlin. Only three percent of Portuguese citizens disagree with the decision, with over 90 percent agreeing to Ukraine's candidate status, likely reflecting Portugal's history, as citizens may see parallels to how the EU assisted the country in its transition to liberal democracy, as well as Ukraine's geographical remoteness to Portugal, meaning that it would be one of the countries least affected by Ukraine joining. 

Ukraine EU membership divides opinion in CEE

Several former communist countries in central and eastern Europe show low-levels of support for Ukraine accession to the EU, with Bulgaria, the EU country with perhaps the largest pro-Russian contingency, having only 42 percent agreeing with the EU's decision, against 37 percent who disagree. Among the reasons for former communist countries disagreeing with Ukraine joining are the fear that a large low-wage labour force in Ukraine will undermine their recent economic progress, that Ukraine's issues with corruption and its intensely divided national politics will cause issues for the EU, and that the decision will further provoke Russian aggression and interference in eastern Europe. 

Germany's east-west divide on Ukraine joining the EU 


Germany, the most economically and politically powerful country in the European Union, has been a dedicated supporter of Ukraine during the recent war. This support comes in spite of the fact that the country is divided in its opinion on Ukraine joining the EU on a regional basis. The scars of German reunification in fact still run a lot deeper than many thought, as 48 percent of Germans in the former communist east of the country (which includes six federal states, including the capital Berlin) disagree with Ukrainian accession, with only 42 percent agreeing with it.

Taken as a whole only 33 percent of Germans disagree with Ukrainian membership of the EU, with only 30 percent in West Germany thinking so. East Germans have shown higher levels of support for Russia, as well as being the source of the recent surge in the polls by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which opposes support for Ukraine. The current scepticism towards NATO and military support for Ukraine likely reflects the socialization of many East Germans under communism, when Russia (at that time the Soviet Union) was seen as East Germany's key ally and its liberator from Fascism.