In Europe, the initial requirement for passenger car travel was 1,105.15 billion passenger-kilometers in 2019. However, this figure dropped to 753.50 billion passenger-kilometers in 2020, only to recover to 572.68 billion in 2022. This upward trend is set to continue, with an estimated increase to 1,107.84 billion passenger-kilometers in 2025 and a further rise to 1,426.43 billion by 2030. The forecast suggests that the demand for passenger car travel will expand significantly, reaching 2,529.43 billion passenger kilometers by 2040, and is projected to increase further to 4,188.44 billion by 2050.
Importantly, Latin America and the Caribbean are also poised for growth, expected to reach 1,328.89 billion passenger-kilometers in 2040 and a substantial 2,066.92 billion by 2050. The changing patterns and growth trajectories in passenger travel demand are evident across all regions.
Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region
(in billions of passenger-kilometers)
(in billions of passenger-kilometers)
Europe
East and Northeast Asia
Latin America and the Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
Southeast Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
South and Southwest Asia
Transition economies and other Asia Pacific
United States of America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand
The Current Ambition scenario acknowledges the urgent need for the transport sector to reduce its carbon emissions and considers existing policies and upcoming commitments at the national and regional levels. It considers the current global political and economic conditions. This scenario recognizes the gradual progress of decarbonization plans worldwide. The outlined policy pathway in this scenario spans the next three decades.
Non-urban international and intercity passenger model
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OECD, & ITF. (May 24, 2023). Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region (in billions of passenger-kilometers) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/
OECD, und ITF. "Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region (in billions of passenger-kilometers) ." Chart. May 24, 2023. Statista. Accessed November 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/
OECD, ITF. (2023). Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region (in billions of passenger-kilometers) . Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/
OECD, and ITF. "Projection for Non-urban Intercity Passenger Model, Travel Demand for Travel by Passengers Cars Worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by Region (in Billions of Passenger-kilometers) ." Statista, Statista Inc., 24 May 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/
OECD & ITF, Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region (in billions of passenger-kilometers) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/ (last visited November 22, 2024)
Projection for non-urban intercity passenger model, travel demand for travel by passengers cars worldwide from 2019 to 2050 by region (in billions of passenger-kilometers) [Graph], OECD, & ITF, May 24, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1399921/passenger-travel-demand-for-travel-by-passenger-cars-worldwide-non-urban/
