Annual share of AR-15 assault rifles in total U.S. firearm production 1990-2020

In just three decades, the share of AR-15 style assault weapons in the total firearm production of the United States rose from around one percent of all firearms produced in the early 1990s to almost a quarter in 2020. Originally designed for the military in the 1950s, AR-15s were initially overlooked by domestic consumers, as they were deemed too powerful, cumbersome, and not traditional enough for the mass market. Today AR-15s are the most popular type of rifle produced in the United States.

AR-15 explosion

The rise in AR-15 manufacturing came with the expiration of the 10 year Federal Assault Weapons Ban (1994-2004). The firearms industry, especially Smith & Wesson, began investing heavily into this model, capitalizing on the pro-military sentiment that grew in the post-9/11 years. The semi-automatic AR-15 was the most powerful weapon that resembled those used in conflict areas and could be made for the mass market. Handgun and rifle sales had been relatively low in the years before, but the growing popularity of the AR-15 helped reinvigorate the firearms industry in the early 2000s. Today, it is estimated that there are over 20 million AR-15 rifles in the U.S., most of which have been made domestically in the past two decades.

Role in mass shootings

The rise in AR-15 ownership coincided with a rising number of mass shootings in the U.S., and AR-15s were used in many of the deadliest incidents. Although handguns and traditional rifles are responsible for the majority of mass shootings in the U.S., the lethality of those involving AR-15s, especially school shootings, has made it a contentious topic. Those who wish to restrict access or remove it from the market argue that AR-15s are unnecessarily powerful for both hunting and protection, and its primary purpose is to kill large numbers of people. However, advocates see it as a symbol of freedom and their Second Amendment rights, arguing that restrictions placed on AR-15s will be followed by further erosion of their right to bear arms. The latter point was illustrated in 2008, when the election of Barack Obama was followed by the largest rise in AR-15 sales, as opponents portrayed him as an "anti-gun radical". As calls to ban the AR-15 have grown louder in recent years, it is often met with a even stronger response among pro-gun advocates, although the majority of voters now support an assault-weapons ban.