As of 2023, Vanguard's U.S. high-yield corporate bonds were forecast to provide the highest 10-year annualized return spread with a minimum forecast return of 6.1 percent. Emerging markets sovereign bonds came in second place with possible returns forecast to range from a possible 5.6 to 6.6 percent. These two securities were also forecast to have the highest medium volatility over a 10-year investment period.
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type
Forecast based on the running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM)
Supplementary notes
The source adds the following information:
The 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are based on the December 31, 2022, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
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Vanguard. (February 15, 2023). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type." Chart. February 15, 2023. Statista. Accessed December 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. (2023). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s Forecast 10-year Annualized Return Spread on U.S. and Global Fixed Income Securities in 2023, by Type." Statista, Statista Inc., 15 Feb 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard, Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/ (last visited December 22, 2024)
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type [Graph], Vanguard, February 15, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
