As of 2023, Vanguard's U.S. high-yield corporate bonds were forecast to provide the highest 10-year annualized return spread with a minimum forecast return of 6.1 percent. Emerging markets sovereign bonds came in second place with possible returns forecast to range from a possible 5.6 to 6.6 percent. These two securities were also forecast to have the highest medium volatility over a 10-year investment period.
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type
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Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type
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Forecast based on the running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM)
Supplementary notes
The source adds the following information:
The 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are based on the December 31, 2022, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
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Vanguard. (February 15, 2023). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved May 14, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type." Chart. February 15, 2023. Statista. Accessed May 14, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. (2023). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: May 14, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s Forecast 10-year Annualized Return Spread on U.S. and Global Fixed Income Securities in 2023, by Type." Statista, Statista Inc., 15 Feb 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
Vanguard, Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/ (last visited May 14, 2025)
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global fixed income securities in 2023, by type [Graph], Vanguard, February 15, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1371578/vanguards-forecast-10-year-return-on-us-and-global-fixed-income-securities/
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