As of 2024, Vanguard has projected that unhedged global equities have the potential to provide the highest return on a 10-year investment period. Unhedged global equities equities had a projected minimum return of 6.9 percent and a forecast maximum potential of 8.9 percent. In addition, unhedged global developed markets equities also had a similar potential return.
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type
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Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type
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Forecast based on the running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM)
Supplementary notes
The source adds the following information: Our 10-year annualized nominal return and volatility forecasts are shown below. They are based on the December 31, 2023, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). Equity returns reflect a 2-point range around the 50th percentile of the distribution of probable outcomes. Fixed income returns reflect a 1-point range around the 50th percentile. More extreme returns are possible.
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Vanguard. (April 23, 2024). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved May 12, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type." Chart. April 23, 2024. Statista. Accessed May 12, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/
Vanguard. (2024). Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: May 12, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/
Vanguard. "Vanguard’s Forecast 10-year Annualized Return Spread on U.S. and Global Equity Securities in 2024, by Equity Type." Statista, Statista Inc., 23 Apr 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/
Vanguard, Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/ (last visited May 12, 2025)
Vanguard’s forecast 10-year annualized return spread on U.S. and global equity securities in 2024, by equity type [Graph], Vanguard, April 23, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1370875/vanguards-forecast-10-year-annualized-return-spread-on-us-and-global-equities-by-security-type/
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