Additional GDP growth due to NextGenEU by member state

The NextGenerationEU economic stimulus plan is set to be implemented according to each European Union member state's national recovery & resilience plan between 2021 and 2026. The stimulus effect which this will have varies across the different member states, with those states which are set to receive a relatively large stimulus package compared with their GDP experiencing a greater boost to growth than others, according to GDP forecasts.

Countries such as Greece, Bulgaria, and Croatia are set to experience as much as three percent additional GDP growth over the target years for the NextGenEU programs. On the other hand, countries such as Sweden, the Netherlands, and Austria, who will receive relatively smaller packages, will experience additional GDP growth of less than one percent per year, mostly caused by spillovers from other countries' plans. While the packages are to be dispersed between 2021 and 2026, the effect on GDP growth in many countries is set to be long-lasting, with growth being boosted into the 2030s.

Forecasted additional annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth due to the NextGenerationEU economic stimulus by European Union member states from 2021 to 2030 (in percentage terms)

Characteristic	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Greece	1.6%	2.7%	2.7%	2.8%	3%	3.3%	2.3%	1.5%	1.7%	1.8%
Bulgaria	1.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.6%	2.8%	3%	2.2%	1.4%	1.6%	1.7%
Croatia	1.5%	2.6%	2.5%	2.6%	2.7%	2.9%	2.1%	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%
Romania	1.2%	2.2%	2.3%	2.5%	2.7%	2.9%	2.2%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%
Italy	1%	1.8%	1.9%	2%	2.3%	2.5%	2.1%	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%
Portugal	1.1%	1.9%	1.9%	2%	2.2%	2.4%	1.9%	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%
Slovakia	1.2%	1.8%	1.8%	1.9%	2%	2.1%	1.6%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Spain	1%	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%	2.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.3%	1.3%
Latvia	1.1%	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	1.9%	2%	1.5%	1%	1.1%	1.1%
Cyprus	1%	1.5%	1.5%	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	1.4%	1.1%	1.1%	1.1%
Poland	0.7%	1.3%	1.5%	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	1.4%	0.9%	1%	0.9%
Hungary	0.5%	1.2%	1.3%	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%	0.8%	0.8%	0.7%
Slovenia	0.9%	1.4%	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%	1.3%	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
Lithuania	0.9%	1.4%	1.3%	1.4%	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
Estonia	0.9%	1.3%	1.2%	1.3%	1.3%	1.3%	1%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Czechia	0.3%	0.9%	1%	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%
Malta	0.9%	1.1%	1%	1%	1.1%	1.1%	0.8%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Belgium	0.5%	0.7%	0.8%	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%
France	0.5%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
Luxembourg	0.7%	0.8%	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
Germany	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
Austria	0.5%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%
Finland	0.5%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%
Netherlands	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%
Denmark	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%
Ireland	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweden	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%

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Release date

July 2021

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Region

Europe, EU

Survey time period

2021 to 2030

Supplementary notes

This forecast was calculated by the authors using a scenario in which each member state spends its share of NGEU funds equally across the years 2021-2026, and in which economic productivity remains high.

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