Perspectives on the future of the EU among member states in 2024

The future of the European Union is a subject that can divide opinion. Some eurosceptic voices have been prophesizing the downfall of the bloc since at least the Eurozone crisis of the early 2010s and the UK's decision to leave the EU in 2016. On the other hand, federalists put forward the idea that European integration is once more moving forward towards "ever closer union", after Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the union into action on a number of key policy issues, such as with the Covid economic stimulus and the energy measures in 2022 to replace Russian oil and gas. What can be seen in recent polling of European citizens is that there is significant variation between member states and different regions in the EU.

The future of the EU: the citizens' perspectives

Countries such as Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Bulgaria, and Lithuania show very high levels of optimism towards the future of the union, with 77 percent of Irish respondents being optimistic, the highest share for any member state together with Poland. These countries, while being diverse, share some commonalities, mostly being smaller member states with populations of around five million or less (except for Poland), suggesting that European integration may be perceived as more necessary in some smaller countries. 

Conversely, Greece, France, and Cyrpus all have a majority of respondents stating they feel pessimistic about the future of the EU. Again, these countries defy being lumped into one narrative about what causes this attitude among their citizens. One unifying thread could be that they have all experienced economic problems since the global financial crisis, great recession, and Eurozone crisis, although these issues are much more prevalent in Greece and Cyprus than in France. As France is one of the major powers in the EU, the negative outlook of its citizenry may not bode well for European cooperation in the coming years, which requires French leadership along with other powers such as Germany, Italy, and Poland. On average, EU citizens were more optimistic than pessimistic about the future of the union in 2024.