U.S. holiday travel forecast 2019-2022, by mode of transport

Americans are forecast to be driving home for Christmas in droves this holiday season, with winter travelers by car expected to exceed 100 million for the first time since 2019.

Impact of COVID-19 on holiday travel

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on holiday travel in the United States. While the source does not provide an explanation for missing data in 2020, it is plausible that the pandemic disrupted the usual data compilation process, or that data for 2020 may not be representative of typical holiday travel patterns due to the significant changes in travel behavior and restrictions that were pub in place to curb the spread of the virus. Opinion polling from December 2020 found that more than 80 percent of Americans would not travel for Christmas that year. In 2021, the number of travelers by car, air, and other transportation methods were low compared with both 2019 and 2022 as COVID-19 infection rates continued to climb.

Forecast for 2022

The scale back of lockdowns and mask mandates, combined with high vaccination rates gave travelers a feeling of normalcy in 2022. For Christmas 2022 it is forecasted that the number of holiday travelers by car will increase by a staggering 2 million. It is additionally forecasted that air travel will see a 14 percent increase, despite the price of air travel increasing by 36 percent in November 2022. This forecast suggests that holiday travel in the United States is expected to gradually return to pre-pandemic levels.